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Toledo vs. Bowling Green - 10/6/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Bowling Green Falcons (1-4) at Toledo Rockets (2-2)

College Football: Saturday, October 6, 2018 at 3:30 pm (Glass Bowl Stadium)

The Line: Toledo Rockets -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN+

The Bowling Green Falcons will travel to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets this Saturday afternoon in College Football action.

The Bowling Green Falcons lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 1-4 (0-1 MAC) on the season after being defeated by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 63-17, this past Saturday. Bowling Green had no answers on the defensive end against the Yellow Jackets rushing attack and couldn’t fight back after the Yellow Jackets too a 42-10 lead with 7:44 left in regulation. Leading the way for the Falcons was WR Scott Miller who had 117 receiving yards on 10 receptions. On the season, Bowling Green is averaging 24.0 ppg on 342.6 total yards per game (256.8 passing yds/g; 85.8 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Bowling Green has been led by QB Jarret Doege who has completed 64.2% of his passes for 12 TD & 6 INT while averaging 239.2 passing yds/g. The top receivers for Doege and the Falcons have been Scott Miller (7.8 rec/g; 89.8 yds/g; 3 TD), Quintin Morris (4.8 rec/g; 58.0 yds/g; 4 TD), and Deric Phouthavong (4.0 rec/g; 42.8 yds/g; 3 TD). Leading the way for the Bowling Green backfield has been Andrew Clair who has a TD on the season while averaging 58.2 rushing yds/g on 17.2 att/g. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing their opponents to average 47.8 ppg on 501.4 total yards per game (160.2 rushing yds/g; 341.2 passing yds/g).

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Toledo vs. Bowling Green - 10/6/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

The Toledo Rockets dropped to 2-2 (0-0 MAC) on the season after being defeated by the Fresno State Bulldogs, 49-27, this past Saturday. Toledo held a 13-7 lead early in the 2nd quarter, however, it was pretty much Fresno State the rest of the way as the Bulldogs scored 42 unanswered points to take a 49-13 lead with 2:48 left in the 3rd quarter. Toledo was outgained by a 554-375 margin and committed a turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Rockets was Jon’Vea Johnson who had 112 receiving yards & 2 TD on 6 receptions. On the season, Toledo is averaging 45.0 ppg on 443.0 total yards per game (270.0 passing yds/g; 173.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Toledo has been led by QB Mitchell Guadagni who has completed 63.4% of his passes for 10 TD & 1 INT while averaging 189.3 passing yds/game. Guadagni is also the leading rusher for the Rockets as he has 2 rushing TD’s while averaging 63.3 rushing yds/g. We’ll have to keep an eye on the status of Guadagni as he left the Fresno State game in the 2nd head quarter due to a head injury and his status is currently uncertain for this match-up against the Falcons. The top receivers for Toledo have been Diontae Johnson (3.8 rec/g; 66.8 yds/g; 4 TD), Jon’Vea Johnson (2.8 rec/g; 62.0 yds/g; 4 TD), and Cody Thompson (2.5 rec/g; 43.0 yds/g; 4 TD). In the Toledo backfield has been RB duo of Bryant Koback (8.8 att/g; 36.5 yds/g; 2 TD) and Shakif Seymour (8.8 att/g; 29.8 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, Toledo is allowing their opponents to average 36.3 ppg on 457.8 total yards per game (266.8 passing yds/g; 191.0 rushing yds/g).

The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. The Rockets are 11-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

Bowling Green is in rebuilding mode and it’s going to be a long season for the Falcons as although their offense can put up some points, their defense has really struggled as they currently rank 117th in total defense & 129th in scoring defense. Toledo can put up points with the best of them however, for them to have success in MAC play, they’ll need to hope that QB Mitchell Guadagni is healthy as he is extremely dangerous with both his arm and legs. The line won’t be released until the status of Guadagni is determined, however, I’m still leaning towards an over in this game and probably will take Toledo to cover what should be a high spread if Guadagni can play.

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