Penn State vs. Michigan State - 10/13/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by James Lang-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan State Spartans (3-2) at Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1)
College Football: Saturday, October 13, 2018 at 3:30 pm (Beaver Stadium)
The Line: Penn State Nittany Lions -13.5 -- Over/Under: Click Here for the Latest Odds
The Michigan State Spartans and Penn State Nittany Lions meet Saturday in college football action at Beaver Stadium.
The Michigan State Spartans look for their second road victory of their season to rebound from a brutal home loss to the Northwestern Wildcats. The Michigan State Spartans have split their last eight road games. Brian Lewerke is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,328 yards, six touchdowns and six interceptions. Lewerke has one or less touchdown passes in six of his last nine games. Felton Davis III and Cody White have combined for 674 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Darrell Stewart Jr. has 15 receptions. The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging 123 yards per contest, and Connor Heyward leads the way with 147 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 23.4 points and 339 yards per game. Joe Bachie leads the Michigan State Spartans with 39 tackles, Kenny Willekes has four sacks and Khari Willis has two interceptions.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have had an extra week to prepare for this game and need a win to stay in the thick of the Big Ten East race. The Penn State Nittany Lions have lost two home games since September of 2015. Trace McSorley is completing 52.9 percent of his passes for 1,049 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. McSorley has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 11 games. KJ Hamler and Juwan Johnson have combined for 510 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Brandon Polk has seven receptions. The Penn State Nittany Lions ground game is averaging 261.2 yards per contest, and Miles Sanders leads the way with 538 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 21 points and 354.4 yards per game. Jan Johnson leads the Penn State Nittany Lions with 29 tackles, Shareef Miller has three sacks and Amani Oruwariye has two interceptions.
The Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in October, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Nittany Lions are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games and 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the over is 15-3-1 in the last 19 meetings.
The Michigan State Spartans are coming off a brutal loss to a subpar Northwestern team, as the offense couldn't do anything and the defense couldn't stop the passing game. Penn State has had an extra week to prepare and its only loss was a one-point contest against a national title contender in the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Michigan State Spartans have covered eight of their last 13 games when a double-digit underdog. The Penn State Nittany Lions are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games when a double-digit favorite. I've been high on Penn State from the begining of the season and there's no reason to jump off that bandwagon with the way they've played up to this point. Michigan State simply is way too inconsistent and I'm not thrilled to get behind them after losing to Northwestern, a team that has no quarterback but somehow threw for 373 yards last week. I'll take PSU by double digits as more of a fade from MSU.