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East Carolina vs. UCF - 10/20/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

UCF Knights (6-0) at East Carolina Pirates (2-4)

College Football: Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 7:00 pm (Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium)

The Line: East Carolina Pirates +22 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN2

The UCF Knights and East Carolina Pirates meet Saturday in college football action at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.

The UCF Knights look for their seventh victory of the season, as they still haven’t lost since December of 2016. The UCF Knights have lost three road games since the start of the 2016 season. McKenzie Milton is completing 59.5 percent of his passes for 1,797 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. Milton has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 13 games. Gabriel Davis and Tre Nixon have combined for 836 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while Dredrick Snelson has 23 receptions. The UCF Knights ground game is averaging 252 yards per contest, and Adrian Killins Jr. leads the way with 385 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, UCF is allowing 19.5 points and 378.7 yards per game. Richie Grant leads the UCF Knights with 54 tackles, Brendon Hayes has three sacks and Eric Mitchell has one interception.

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East Carolina vs. UCF - 10/20/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

The East Carolina Pirates look for their first victory over a ranked team since their 2014 win over the Virginia Tech Hokies. The East Carolina Pirates have split their last eight home games. Reid Herring is completing 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,502 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Herring has one or less touchdown passes in four of his last five games. Trevon Brown and Blake Proehl have combined for 734 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Deondre Farrier has 19 receptions. The East Carolina Pirates ground game is averaging 123.3 yards per contest, and Holton Ahlers leads the way with 248 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, East Carolina is allowing 32.2 points and 351.2 yards per game. Nate Harvey leads the East Carolina Pirates with 36 tackles, Kendall Futrell has three sacks and Corey Seargent has two interceptions.

The Knights are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Pirates are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games, 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 conference games and 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. The under is 9-3 in Pirates last 12 games in October and the under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games overall.

The UCF Knights almost had their winning streak come to an end last week when they gave up 490 yards of offense and headed into halftime down 13 points. The East Carolina Pirates are starting to look like the team they were last year defensively, and they've been outscored by 32.5 points in their last two games. The UCF Knights have covered seven of their last 11 games when favored by at least 17 points. The East Carolina Pirates have failed to cover seven of their last eight games when an underdog of at least 17 points. The East Carolina Pirates are capable of hanging around, but if the defensive continues to struggle like it has recently, UCF should have its way here. There's better options on the board, but I feel more confident in the Knights blowing the doors off than I do ECU hanging tight. I'll eat the chalk if forced to pick. 

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