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Houston vs. USF - 10/27/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USF Bulls (7-0) at Houston Cougars (6-1)

College Football: Saturday, October 27, 2018 at 3:30 pm (TDECU Stadium)

The Line: Houston Cougars -8 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: ABC, ESPN2

The South Florida Bulls and Houston Cougars meet Saturday in college football action at TDECU Stadium.

The South Florida Bulls look for their ninth straight victory to remain undefeated on the season while remaining the frontrunner for the AAC title. The South Florida Bulls have won each of their last four non-home games. Blake Barnett is completing 62 percent of his passes for 1,815 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Barnett has three touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last three games. Randall St. Felix and Tyre McCants have combined for 924 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Mitchell Wilcox has 26 receptions. The South Florida Bulls ground game is averaging 236.8 yards per contest, and Jordan Cronkrite leads the way with 860 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, South Florida is allowing 25.7 points and 409.7 yards per game. Khalid McGee leads the South Florida Bulls with 60 tackles, Joe Black has four sacks and Mike Hampton has two interceptions. 

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Houston vs. USF - 10/27/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Cougars look for their fifth straight victory while remaining unbeaten at home and improving the quality of their future bowl game. The Houston Cougars have won each of their last five home games. D’Eriq King is completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,984 yards, 23 touchdowns and three interceptions. King has three or more touchdown passes in six of his last seven games. Marquez Stevenson and Keith Corbin have combined for 1,111 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while Courtney Lark has 28 receptions. The Houston Cougars ground game is averaging 234 yards per contest, and Patrick Carr leads the way with 407 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Houston is allowing 29.1 points and 482.9 yards per game. Austin Robinson leads the Houston Cougars with 75 tackles, Isaiah Chambers has 4.5 sacks and Garrett Davis has two interceptions.

The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 17-8 in Cougars last 25 games overall and the under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 conference games.

The South Florida Bulls haven't been great at covering numbers this season, but they have yet to lose a game and have been an underdog of five or more points just twice since September of 2016. It's not often you see an undefeated team and a favorite to win the conference as an eight-point underdog. The Houston Cougars are a very tough team at home and have scored no less than 41 points in all seven games this season. The Houston Cougars have split their last 12 games ATS when favored by at least five points. Houston has the clear edge at quarterback and probably should be favored to win this game at home. But I'm not laying this many points with a USF team that has found ways to win every game up to this point, even if four of the last five wins have been decided by single digits. The value is with the South Florida Bulls and the points based on them finding ways to win. 

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