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Alabama at LSU - 11/3/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) at LSU Tigers (7-1)

College Football: Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 8:00 pm (Tiger Stadium-LSU)

The Line: LSU Tigers +14 -- Over/Under: 53.5 See the Latest Odds


The Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers meet Saturday in college football action at Tiger Stadium.

The Alabama Crimson Tide look to remain undefeated to stay as the favorite to win the national title. The Alabama Crimson Tide have lost two road games since August of 2014. Tua Tagovailoa  is completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,066 yards, 25 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Tagovailoa has three or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. Jerry Jeudy and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 1,234 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns while Henry Ruggs III has 24 receptions. The Alabama Crimson Tide ground game is averaging 216.8 yards per contest, and Najee Harris leads the way with 489 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Alabama is allowing 15.9 points and 307.9 yards per game. Deionte Thompson leads the Alabama Crimson Tide with 46 tackles, Isaiah Buggs has 8.5 sacks and Saivion Smith has three interceptions. 

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Alabama at LSU - 11/3/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The LSU Tigers look to remain undefeated at home to stay in the SEC and college football playoff conversations. The LSU Tigers have won each of their last eight home games. Joe Burrow is completing 53.8 percent of his passes for 1,544 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Burrow has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Justin Jefferson and Stephen Sullivan have combined for 655 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Dee Anderson has 15 receptions. The LSU Tigers ground game is averaging 190.6 yards per contest, and Nick Brossette leads the way with 697 yards and 10 touchdowns. Defensively, LSU is allowing 15.1 points and 330.3 yards per game. Devin White leads the LSU Tigers with 76 tackles, Grant Delpit has four sacks and John Battle has three interceptions.

The Crimson Tide are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Louisiana State, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the road team is 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 meetings. The over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games overall and the over is 4-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 games overall.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are as balanced as they've been in years, as they still have the elite defense they always have, but they now have a quarterback you can trust and have scored no less than 39 points in all eight games this season. The LSU Tigers have had just one hiccup this season and have given up no more than 21 points in seven of their eight games. The Alabama Crimson Tide have covered six of their last nine games when favored by double digits. The LSU Tigers have covered both games as a double-digit underdog since 2017. Capping this game is real easy for me. The Alabama Crimson Tide have looked great, but they have yet to play anybody worth mentioning if we're being completely honest. The LSU Tigers have been doubted for much of the year, and they beat Miami, Auburn and Georgia in the underdog role when few gave them a chance. Death Valley is not an easy place to play, and that defense will make Tagovailoa look human. If LSU can keep this game close until it gets Devin White back at halftime, I wouldn't be shocked if the Tigers win this game outright in the second half. Regardless, I really like two free touchdowns here.

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