Boise State vs. BYU - 11/3/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
BYU Cougars (4-4) at Boise State Broncos (6-2)
College Football: Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 10:15 pm (Albertsons Stadium)
The Line: Boise State Broncos -14 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The BYU Cougars will travel to Albertsons Stadium to take on the Boise State Broncos this upcoming Saturday in College Football action
The BYU Cougars dropped to 4-4 on the season after being defeated by the Northern Illinois Huskies, 7-6, this past Saturday. This was expected to be a low scoring game which lived up to that expectation and BYU couldn’t fight back after a Northern Illinois TD early in the third quarter gave the Huskies a 7-3 lead. BYU outgained Northern Illinois by a 301-204 margin however, did lose the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Cougars was QB Zach Wilson who completed 18 of 30 passes for 208 yards and an INT. On the season, BYU is averaging 22.8 ppg on 326.4 total yards per game (192.4 passing yds/g; 134.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, BYU has been led by the running back duo of Squally Canada (11.6 att/g; 52.3 yds/g; 5 TD) and Lopini Katoa (7.0 att/g; 33.0 yds/g; 4 TD). QB Zach Wilson, who recently replaced senior Tanner Mangum, has completed 63.3% of his passes for 466 yards, 4 TD, & 2 INT in his 4 games this season (2 starts). The top receiving targets for the Cougars have been Matt Bushman (1.9 rec/g; 33.8 yds/g; TD), Aleva Hifo (2.9 rec/g; 28.6 yds/g; TD), Talon Shumway (1.6 rec/g; 27.8 yds/g; TD), and Gunner Romney (1.6 rec/g; 200 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, BYU is allowing their opponents to average 22.3 ppg on 335.0 total yards per game (193.1 passing yds/g; 141.9 rushing yds/g).
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The Boise State Broncos won their 3rd straight game and improved to 6-2 (4-1 MW) on the season after defeating the Air Force Falcons, 48-38, this past Saturday. Boise State had all they could handle from the Falcons however, was able to make it a two possession game late after a 61-yd catch by John Hightower, gave the Broncos a 48-38 lead with 3:21 left in regulation. Boise State outgained Air Force by a 530-443 margin and didn’t commit any turnovers in the loss. Leading the way for the Broncos was QB Brett Rypien who completed 20 of 34 passes for 399 yards and 5 TD. On the season, Boise State is averaging 40.1 ppg on 486.4 total yards per game (332.0 passing yds/g; 154.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Boise State has been led by QB Brett Rypien who has completed 67.9% of his passes for 23 TD & 5 INT while averaging 320.6 passing yds/g. the top receivers for Rypien and the Broncos have been Sean Modster (5.4 rec/g; 80.3 yds/g; 4 TD), A.J. Richardson (4.4 rec/g; 75.0 yds/g; 7 TD), John Hightower (3.6 rec/g; 61.0 yds/g; 6 TD), and CT Thomas (3.5 rec/g; 44.5 yds/g; 3 TD). Leading the way for the Broncos backfield has been Alexander Mattison who had 8 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 79.6 yds/g on 18.8 att/g. Defensively, Boise State is allowing their opponents to average 24.6 ppg on 359.3 total yards per game (227.3 passing yds/g; 132.0 rushing yds/g).
The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games however, are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
BYU had a great start to their season which included an upset on the road at Wisconsin in Week 3, however, it’s been a struggle as of late as the Cougars have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Boise State isn’t as strong as we’ve seen in the past however, their still one of the best teams in the Mountain West led by arguably the best QB in the conference in Brett Rypien. BYU changed QB’s in hopes to spark an offense that ranks 112th in College Football, however, I’m not sold on Zach Wilson being the answer and as the Broncos defense has played much better at home, I think the Broncos do enough on the blue turf to cover this large spread.