Oregon State vs. USC - 11/3/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
USC Trojans (4-4) at Oregon State Beavers (2-6)
College Football: Saturday, November 3, 2018 at 10:00 pm (Reser Stadium)
The Line: Oregon State Beavers -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The USC Trojans will travel to Reser Stadium to take on the Oregon State Beavers this Saturday night in College Football action.
The USC Trojans lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 4-4 (3-3 Pac-12) on the season after being defeated by the Arizona State Sun Devils, 38-35, this past Saturday. USC fought back from a 24-7 deficit to take a 28-24 lead early in the 3rd quarter, however, Arizona State was able to pull away late after a 45-yard TD run by Manny Wilkins gave the Sun Devils a two possession lead with just 1:23 left in regulation. USC was outgained by Arizona State by a 449-420 margin and committed one turnover in the loss. Leading the way for the Trojans was WR Michael Pittman Jr. who had 90 receiving yards and 2 TD’s on 6 receptions. On the season, USC is averaging 27.1 ppg on 364.1 total yards per game (243.3 passing yds/g; 120.9 rushing yds/g). Offensively, USC has been led by QB JT Daniels (56.9 Comp %; 8 TD; 7 INT; 323.7 passing yds/g) who missed last game due to a head injury. In replacement of Daniels, Jack Sears completed 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards and 2 TD’s. The top receiving targets for the Trojans have been Michael Pittman Jr. (3.4 rec/g; 70.1 yds/g; 6 TD), Amon-Ra St. Brown (4.1 rec/g; 58.3 yds/g; 2 TD), and Tyler Vaughns (4.3 rec/g; 50.4 yds/g; 3 TD). Leading the way for the USC rushing attack has been the trio of Aca’Cedric Ware (9.1 att/g; 52.8 yds/g; 3 TD), Stephen Carr (9.4 att/g; 41.9 yds/g; TD), and Vavae Malepeai (5.8 att/g; 31.9 yds/g; 7 TD).
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The Oregon State Beavers snapped their 5-game losing streak and improved to 2-6 (1-4 Pac-12) on the season after defeating the Colorado Buffaloes, 41-34, this past Saturday. In one of the most surprising comebacks of the season, Oregon State fought back from a 31-3 deficit in the 3rd quarter to force OT, and was able to come up with a big defense stop after the Beavers opened up OT with a TD. Oregon State was outgained by a 536-459 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Beavers was QB Jake Luton who completed 28 of 39 passes for 310 yards and 3 TD’s. On the season, Oregon State is averaging 29.6 ppg on 427.8 total yards per game (242.8 passing yds/g; 185.0 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Oregon State has been led by RB Jermar Jefferson who has 12 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 129.3 rushing yds/g on 20.3 att/g. QB Jack Luton returned from a 4-game absence due to injury and in his 4 games this season (2 starts), has completed 66.7% of his passes for 4 TD & 1 INT while averaging 170.5 passing yds/g. The top receivers for the Beavers on the season have been Isaiah Hodgins (5.3 rec/g; 76.0 yds/g; 4 TD), Timmy Hernandez (5.1 rec/g; 57.3 yds/g; 1 TD), and Trevon Bradford (4.6 rec/g; 47.6 yds/g; 5 TD). Defensively, Oregon State is allowing their opponents to average 45.6 ppg on 540.4 total yards per game (273.0 passing yds/g; 267.4 rushing yds/g).
The Trojans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win however, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
USC has been really hit hard by injuries this season however, still is a very talented young team that can be competitive as they showed in their recent loss at USC. I’m still shocked about Oregon State’s comeback agianst Colorado and although the Beavers should have a bunch of positive momentum coming into this game, this is still a team that ranks 128th in scoring defense this year. The line has yet to be released as the status of JT Daniels is still in doubt, however, even with Jack Sears behind center, I’m leaning on taking the Trojans to cover a mid-to-large spread. Please check back when the line is released.