NIU vs. Toledo - 11/7/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Toledo Rockets (5-4) at NIU Huskies (6-3)
College Football: Wednesday, November 7, 2018 at 8:00 pm (Huskie Stadium)
The Line: NIU Huskies -2 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The Toledo Rockets will travel to Huskie Stadium to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies this Wednesday night in College Football action.
The Toledo Rockets won their 2nd straight game and improved to 5-4 (3-2 MAC) on the season after defeating the Ball State Cardinals, 45-13, this past Wednesday. Toledo came out of the gates on fire as they took a 21-0 lead with 7:43 left in the 1st quarter and despite committing 5 turnovers, was able to pull away after a Cody Thompson 23-yard TD reception was able to give the Rockets a 38-13 lead with 10:50 left in regulation. Toledo outgained Ball State by a 531-437 margin and forced the Cardinals into committing 5 turnovers in the victory. Leading the way for the Rockets was RB Bryant Koback who had 78 rushing yards & 2 TD’s on the 15 carries. On the season, Toledo is averaging 41.2 ppg on 440.1 total yards per game (235.8 passing yds/g; 204.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Toledo has been led by Mitchell Guadagni who has completed 57.5% of his passes for 13 TD & 3 INT while averaging 150.4 passing yds/g. Guadagni has also been a threat with his legs as he has 3 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 61.1 rushing yds/g. Guadagni missed last game due to a shoulder injury and is currently questionable for this matchup. If Guadagni can’t go, Eli Peters (53.7% Comp %; 11 TD; 6 INT; 124.8 passing yds/g) will be behind center for the 2nd straight week. The top receiving threats for the Rockets have been Diontae Johnson (3.7 rec/g; 64.8 yds/g; 7 TD), Cody Thompson (3.4 rec/g; 47.2 yds/g; 10 TD), and Jon’Vea Johnson (2.3 rec/g; 46.1 yds/g; 4 TD). Leading the way for the Rockets backfield has been the trio of Bryant Koback (9.9 att/g; 56.9 yds/g; 9 TD), Shakif Seymour (10.1 att/g; 46.9 yds/g; 3 TD), and Art Thompkins (6.9 att/g; 36.4 yds/g; 3 TD). Defensively, Toledo is allowing their opponents to average 30.8 ppg on 450.7 total yards per game (279.4 passing yds/g; 11.2 rushing yds/g).
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
The Northern Illinois Huskies won their 5th straight game and improved to 6-3 (5-0 MAC) on the season after defeating the Akron Zips, 36-26, this past Thursday. In a surprisingly high-scoring game between these two teams, the Huskies was able to pull away early in the 4th quarter after a 23-yard pick-6 by Jalen McKie gave Northern Illinois a double-digit lead wit 9:05 left in regulation. Northern Illinois outgained Akron by a 484-361 margin and forced the Zips into committing two turnovers in the victory. On the season, Northern Illinois is averaging 19.2 ppg on 306.4 total yards per game (139.1 passing yds/g; 167.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Northern Illinois has ben led by QB Marcus Childers who has completed 56.7% of his passes for 9 TD & 5 INT while averaging 139.1 passing yds/g. Childers has also done some damage with his legs as he has 3 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 30.0 rushing yds/g. The top receiving threats for the Huskies have been Jauan Wesley (4.4 rec/g; 48.8 yds/g; 2 TD) and D.J. Brown (4.4 rec/g; 38.7 yds/g; 3 TD). Leading the way for the Huskies backfield has been the duo of Tre Harbison (13.8 att/g; 73.9 yds/g; 4 TD) and Marcus Jones (7.8 att/g; 41.7 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, Northern Illinois is holding their opponents to an average of 21.7 ppg on 346.3 total yards per game.
The Rockers are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games however, are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall however, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Toledo is a talented offensive football team however, I will be more confident with the Rockets in this one if QB Mitchell Guadagni is behind center as although backup Eli Peters threw for 300+ yards agianst Ball State, he did throw 3 INT and seemed a bit careless with the ball. Northern Illinois is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 32nd in total defense and is holding their opponents to just 18 ppg at home this season. This is a big game for Northern Illinois as they have firm control of the MAC West division and as of right now, however, I wasn’t that impressed by their defense agianst a poor Zips offense last week and although I’m really hoping that Guadagni will be able to give it go, I still think the Rockets offense will be able to do enough to cover with the points. Take Toledo and the points.