Air Force vs. New Mexico - 11/10/18 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction
New Mexico Lobos (3-6) at Air Force Falcons (3-6)
College Football: Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 3:30 pm (Falcon Stadium)
The Line: Air Force Falcons -13.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network
The New Mexico Lobos will travel to Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons this upcoming Saturday afternoon in College Football action.
The New Mexico Lobos lost their 4th straight game and dropped to 3-6 (1-4 MW) on the season after being defeated by the San Diego State Aztecs, 31-23, this past Saturday. New Mexico took a 23-14 lead early in the 4th quarter however, struggled defensively the rest of the way and allowed San Diego to get the come from behind victory after allowing the Aztecs to score 17 unanswered points over the final 7:29 of regulation. New Mexico was outgained by a 401-142 margin however, did win the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin in the loss. Leading the way for the Lobos was QB Coltin Gerhart who had 41 yards passing and 2 TD’s. On the season, New Mexico is averaging 30.9 ppg on 368.3 total yards per game (200.4 passing yds/g; 167.9 rushing yds/g). Offensively, New Mexico has been led by RB Tyrone Jones who has 6 rushing TD’s on the season while averaging 64.6 rushing yds/g on 16.9 att/g. QB Sheriron Jones has completed 53.7% of his passes for 13 TD & 10 INT on the season while averaging 150.3 passing yds/g however, was replaced by Coltin Gerhart last game. Gerhart didn’t show much in his first start of the season as although he threw for 2 TD’s, he was just 9 for 20 for 41 passing yards. The leading receivers for the Lobos have been Elijah Lilly (2.2 rec/g; 41.6 yds/g; 5 TD), Delane Hart-Johnson (2.9 rec/g; 39.1 yds/g; 5 TD), and Anselem Umeh (1.6 rec/g; 29.9 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, New Mexico is allowing their opponents to average 35.1 ppg on 466.3 total yards per game (296.0 passing yds/g; 170.3 rushing yds/g).
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
The Air Force Falcons lost their 2nd straight game and dropped to 3-6 (1-4 MW) on the season after being defeated by the Army Black Knights, 17-14, this past Saturday. Air Force had a chance to tie/win the game as they got the ball back down by three with 3:02 left in regulation, however, the Falcons turned the ball over on downs after they couldn’t convert on a 4th & 3 at the Army 40. Air Force outgained Army by a 322-286 margin however, did lose the turnover battle by a 1-0 margin. Leading the way for the Falcons was QB Donald Hammond III who completed 7 of 15 passes for 120 yards while also adding 30 yards and a TD on the ground. On the season, Air Force is averaging 29.7 ppg on 385.3 total yards per game (144.1 passing yds/g; 241.2 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Air Force led by their rushing attack that ranks 14th in the country. Leading the way for the rushing attack has been RB Cole Fagan (13.0 att/g; 58.1 yds/g; 4 TD), QB Isaiah Sanders (15.0 att/g; 58.3 yds/g; 6 TD), Kadin Remsberg (6.9 att/g; 35.8 yds/g; TD), Joseph Saucier (4.0 att/g; 24.3 yds/g; 2 TD), Ronald Cleveland (5.6 att/g; 24.4 yds/g; 2 TD), and Donald Hammond III (7.2 att/g; 23.0 yds/g; 6 TD). Air Force will use both QB Isaiah Sanders (61.5 Comp %; 4 TD; 3 INT; 105.5 yds/g) and Donald Hammond III (48.8 Comp %; 2 TD; 57.3 passing yds/g) behind center. The top receivers for the Falcons have been Marcus Bennett (1.9 rec/g; 38.4 yds/g; 2 TD) and Ronald Cleveland (2.1 rec/g; 34.4 yds/g; 2 TD). Defensively, Air Force is allowing their opponents to average 25.7 ppg on 357.3 total yards per game (234.1 passing yds/g; 123.2 rushing yds/g).
The Lobos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games however, just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
It’s been a struggle for New Mexico as of late however, they have to be happy with the effort they got from their defense against San Diego State as the Lobos had a chance to win that game despite gaining just 142 yards of offense. Air Force has dropped back to back games however, were competitive against two good teams in Boise State & Army and once again have a very solid offensive attack. I think most people are going to be on Air Force this game, however, even though New Mexico’s defense is giving up a bunch of points this season, they have been much better against the run than the pass which bodes well for them against the Falcons. I think Air Force is going to win this game, but I think New Mexico will keep it closer than expected and, in the end, cover with the points.