AAC Picks: UCF vs Cincinnati 11/21/20 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

AAC Picks: UCF vs Cincinnati  11/21/20 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions Photo by Cincinnati Enquirer-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati Bearcats (7-0) at UCF Knights (5-2)

College Football: Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 3:30 pm (Bounce House)

The Line: UCF Knights +3.5 -- Over/Under: 61.5 Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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The UCF Knights host the nationally ranked Cincinnati Bearcats as they meet in an AAC college football matchup from the Bounce House in Orlando on Saturday afternoon.

The Cincinnati Bearcats come into this game looking to remain unbeaten and take another step towards a potential playoff spot after improving to 7-0 with a 55-17 win over East Carolina last time out. Desmond Ridder has thrown for 1,483 yards, 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 66.7% passing while also sitting 2nd on the team in rushing with 469 yards as well as a team-high 9 touchdowns. Gerrid Doaks leads Cincinnati in rushing with 563 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns while Jerome Ford has 324 rushing yards and 6 scores this season. Jayshon Jackson leads Cincinnati’s receiving group with 266 yards while Michael Young Jr. has 251 receiving yards with 3 TDs and Josh Whyte has 210 receiving yards with a team-high 4 receiving touchdowns. Tre Tucker has 205 receiving yards with 3 touchdowns while Doaks, Jordan Jones and Leonard Taylor all have 100+ receiving yards this season. On defense, Jarell White leads Cincinnati with 65 total tackles including a team-high 35 solo tackles while Coby Bryant and Ahmad Gardner each have a team-high 3 interceptions and Myjai Sanders has a team-high 5 sacks this season.

The UCF Knights will look to add to their 5-2 record on the year after picking up a 3rd straight win in the form of a 38-13 win over Temple last time out. Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 2,774 yards, 23 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 63.3% passing while Otis Anderson leads UCF with 563 rushing yards and 4 TDs and Greg McCrae has 532 rushing yards with a team-high 7 touchdowns while Bentavious Thompson has 243 rushing yards and 3 scores this season. Marlon Williams leads UCF’s receiving group with 63 receptions for 942 yards and 8 TDs while Jaylon Robinson has 41 catches for 822 yards and 4 TDs. Ryan O’Keefe has 362 receiving yards with 3 touchdowns and Jacob Harris also has 19 grabs for 296 yards and 4 scores this season. On defense, Richie Grant leads UCF with 49 total tackles including a team-high 33 solo tackles and 3 interceptions while Eriq Gilyard is right behind with 48 total tackles. Kenny Turnier leads UCF with 4 sacks while Cam Goode is right behind with 3 sacks as well this season.

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Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. UCF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games while the over is 8-2 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

I get why points are tempting with the Knights at home as UCF is perennially one of the top offensive units in the country and their 0-3 mark ATS at home is mainly a product of laying too many points. However, the Knights are also 2-5 ATS overall this season including those 3 blown covers at home, and while Cincinnati has only played one true road game, the fact is that the Bearcats have shut down the better offenses in the AAC up to this point and while East Carolina isn’t a star-studded offense, the Pirates have been able to put up their fair share of points as well this season. The 17 points to East Carolina last week were the most that the Bearcats have allowed to an FBS team this season, and in conference this year, the Bearcats are outscoring their opponents 212-57, an average margin of victory of 31 points per game. And that’s with games against Memphis, Houston and SMU all in there. I don’t see any reason to expect anything different here. The Bearcats are legit. Give me Cincinnati and lay the points on the road in this spot.

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Chris’s Pick Cincinnati -3.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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