NC State vs USF 9/2/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The NC State Wolfpack battle the USF Bulls in week 1 2021 college football action from Carter-Finley Stadium on Thursday.

The USF Bulls will look to bounce back in 2021 after a horrendous 2020 campaign that saw the Bulls finish at 1-8 including an 0-7 mark in AAC play. Jeff Scott and OC Charlie Weis Jr. had a tough go at last year, but there’s a lot to like this time around, with the Bulls bringing back ten starters. Cade Fortin is expected to take over starting QB duties as Jordan McCloud transferred to Arizona. Fortin will have lots of options to throw to, including experienced receivers like Omarion Dollison and Latrell Williams while Bryce Miller is back as the volume receiver and Xavier Weaver returns as the home run threat if the Bulls get going offensively. Kelley Joiner is back in the USF backfield as the speed back while Brian Battle averaged seven yards per carry last season and will be tasked to provide the 1-2 punch in USF’s backfield that fills the hole left by Johnny Ford, who went to FAU. Defensively, USF brings back a lot of their production, but how good is that when the Bulls allowed 39.9 PPG last season. Sure, there’s something to be said for continuity, but the results haven’t been great. USF gets their top two tacklers back in Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles, combining for 103 tackles. Daquan Evans will be asked to anchor the secondary after recording three interceptions for the Bulls last year. As a team, USF averaged 23.1 PPG while allowing 39.9 PPG last season.

The NC State Wolfpack will come into this season looking to build on their 6^th winning season in the last seven under Dave Doeren, finishing 8-4 in 2020 culminating in a 23-21 loss to Kentucky in the Gator Bowl. 2020’s leading passer, Bailey Hockman, transferred to Middle Tennessee, but the Wolfpack still have options, with the starting job looking like it’s Devin Leary’s to lose early on after recovering from a broken leg while Ben Finley will likely serve as the backup. Zonovan Knight returns to NC State’s backfield after recording 10 TDs last season and Ricky Person is also back as is Jordan Houston who finished 3^rd on the Pack in rushing last season. Leary gets some options to throw to as well, as Emeka Emezie is back after catching 47 balls for 738 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. Thayer Thomas is also back at slot after hauling in a team-high 6 touchdowns and Devin Carter brings size to the outside standing at 6’4”. Defensively, the cupboard is full for the Pack as well, with nine starters slated to return, including three top linebackers in Isaiah Moore, Drake Thomas and Payton Wilson who are three All-ACC worthy linebackers in one corps. Daniel Joseph is back to lead NC State’s pass rush and Savion Jackson on the opposite side while Cory Durden transfers in from Florida State to aid the cause. The secondary is loaded as well with guys like Tyler Baker-Williams who had 60 tackles last season as well as incoming transfer Cyrus Fagan from Florida State and Shyheim Battle leads the corners for the Wolfpack. As a team, NC State averaged 30.2 PPG while allowing 29.2 PPG last season. 

USF is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 week 1 matchups while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall. NC State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the under is 15-3 in their last 18 Thursday games.

I think USF will take a slight step forward this season under Jeff Scott, but the reality is that it’s a case of I need to see it before I truly believe it with USF as this is a program that’s disappointed often in recent years. NC State laying this many points can be a rarity, but I think that’s just where these two teams are at right now and Devin Leary is a far better option at QB with better tools than what USF is bringing to the table. I’ll lay the points with NC State here.