Iowa vs Indiana 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Iowa Hawkeyes meet the Indiana Hoosiers Saturday in week 1 college football action at Kinnick Stadium. Indiana is coming off a 6-2 record and enters the fifth full season under coach Tom Allen. Iowa also finished 6-2 last season and enters its 23rd season under coach Kirk Ferentz.

The Indiana Hoosiers averaged 28.9 points and 359.5 yards per game last season. Indiana allowed an average of 20.3 points and 378.1 yards per game last season. Michael Penix Jr. returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,600 yards and 14 touchdowns. Tim Baldwin Jr. should get more carries at running back after 22 touches in the backup role last year. Ty Fryfogle and Miles Marshall is a wide receiving duo that combined for 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns. Defensively, Micah McFadden returns after leading Indiana with 58 tackles, Tiawan Mullen had 3.5 sacks and Jaylin Williams had four interceptions. Indiana’s football program has improved greatly over the years and the Hoosiers have become a sneaky contender in the Big Ten. Indiana has some key players it has to replace, but there’s enough here to push the rest of the conference once again.

The Iowa Hawkeyes averaged 31.8 points and 368.6 yards per game last season. Iowa allowed an average of 16 points and 313.8 yards per game last season. Spencer Petras returns at quarterback after throwing for 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns. Tyler Goodson also returns as the leading Iowa rusher, racking up 700 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Sam LaPorta and Nico Ragaini is a receiving duo that combined for 400 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Iowa lost its top tackler, but Seth Benson returns after producing 47 tackles, Zach VanValkenburg had 3.5 sacks and Jack Koerner had three interceptions. Iowa lost a lot of production on the defensive side, but the offense should hit the ground running with the group staying intact. Iowa was one of the best defenses in the country last year, but it will replace a lot of sack production and a NFL draft pick in Nick Niemann.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Hawkeyes are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 games overall. The under is 13-6-1 in Hawkeyes last 20 games overall. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Indiana has become a sneaky good football program that you can confidently back in the underdog role. This could be one of those spots again with Iowa losing a lot of production on the defensive side from last season. With that said, we’re not being asked to lay a whole lot with the Hawkeyes, and this is still a physical Iowa team that should control the trenches. Indiana doesn’t have success against Iowa over the years and is still a bit small where it counts. Iowa should manhandle Indiana in the trenches. I’ll lay the field goal with the home team.