College Football

Purdue vs Oregon State 9/4/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

Oregon State Beavers (0-0) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (0-0)
September 4, 2021 7:00 pm EDT
The Line: Purdue Boilermakers -7 / Oregon State Beavers +7; Over/Under: 63.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Purdue Boilermakers meet the Oregon State Beavers in week 1 college football action from Ross-Ade Stadium on Saturday night.

The Oregon State Beavers will be looking to rebound from a 2-5 record in 2020, leaving the Beavers on the outside looking in for the seventh straight season in terms of bowl action. Tristan Gebbia is expected to be given the first crack at starting QB, throwing for 824 yards and 3 touchdowns with 3 interceptions before a season-ending hamstring injury last season. Chance Nolan threw for 6 touchdowns in relief of Gebbia, but Sam Noyer is transferring within the Pac-12 from Colorado to battle for the starting job under center in Corvallis. Jermar Jefferson is now in the NFL, leaving running back duties for Deshaun Fenwick, who comes in from South Carolina as well as junior BJ Baylor for a formidable 1-2 punch in Oregon State’s backfield. Trevon Bradford is back at receiver after leading Oregon State with 24 grabs for 239 yards and a touchdown while Tyjon Lindsey is back as the Beavers’ best deep threat while Zeriah Benson tied Lindsey with a team-high 3 touchdown receptions last season. Teagan Quitoriano is also back at tight end for a safety valve for whoever ends up getting the starting nod at QB. Defensively, some pieces return, but there’s a lot of improvement that needs to happen from a unit that allowed 442 yards of total offense and over 33 points per game. Avery Roberts and Omar Speights lead the charge at linebacker after combining for 132 tackles last season while Riley Sharp and Andrzej Hughes-Murray will be tasked with leading the pass rush on the outside at linebacker. Isaac Hodgins comes in as the main piece on a less-than-imposing Oregon State defensive front. Jaydon Grant and Alex Austin lead the charge for the Oregon State secondary, but it’ll be a rotation with a lot of moving pieces that will have to gel over the course of the season. As a team, Oregon State averaged 28.9 PPG and allowed 33.3 PPG last season.

The Purdue Boilermakers will also be looking to rebound from a disappointing 2020 season that saw the Boilers finish 2-4 on the year. The starting quarterback job will constantly be up for grabs with Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell leading a pass attack that led the Big Ten in aerial offense with both throwing for over 900 yards in three games respectively, with Plummers logging 8 touchdowns with a pair of interceptions and O’Connell logging 7 TDs to 2 INTs. Zander Horvath led the Boilers in rushing with 442 rushing yards and two touchdowns, but will be hoping for a bigger workload after Purdue committed to just 150 rush attempts last season. That’s because the receiving corps is outstanding even losing Rondale Moore to the NFL, with David Bell returning after logging a team-high 53 catches and 8 touchdowns. Milton Wright occupies the other receiver spot while Payne Durham, Garrett Miller and Jackson Anthrop will all see their fair share of targets this season. On defense, the Boilers have the pieces but will have to execute after finishing dead last in the Big Ten in sacks and allowed just under 400 yards and 30 points per game. George Karlaftis anchors the pass rush up front while Jaylan Alexander and DaMarcus Mitchell are both back after finishing 2nd and 3rd on the team in tackles with Mitchell logging a team-high 6 TFLs last season while the pair combined for 82 tackles. The secondary features Cam Allen at safety who had a pair of interceptions and 27 tackles last season while Cory Trice and Dedrick Mackey occupy the top two corner spots for Purdue. As a team, Purdue averaged 27.2 PPG and allowed 29.8 PPG last season.

Oregon State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games while the over is 7-3 in their last 10 Saturday games. Purdue is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games in September while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 week 1 matchups.

This is shaping up to be one of the more underrated games in week 1 in my opinion and it’s one I’m definitely going to tune in to check out. With that said, I just think that Purdue has the better talent on offense and while Oregon State will hold their own and open some eyes this season, going on the road to take down Purdue in week 1 is a tough ask for anyone. It’s not often that you have a team with two capable QBs. I’m leaning towards Purdue to get the win and cover at home here.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick: Purdue -7

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Chris Ruffolo

Chris joined the Sports Chat Place team in August 2016 and has a proven system that combines multiple analytical and situational statistics and trends to give out thousands of winning picks over the last three years with winning records across all of the top leagues, Follow Chris Ruffolo on Twitter @ruffthepickdawg

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