Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State 10/23/21 College Football Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Vanderbilt Commodores meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday in week 8 SEC college football action at Vanderbilt Stadium. The Mississippi State Bulldogs need a win to get a game above a .500 record. The Vanderbilt Commodores need a win after losing four of their last five games.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have lost five of their last six road games. Will Rogers is completing 73.7 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Makai Polk and Austin Williams have combined for 755 receiving yards and five touchdowns, while Jaden Walley has 25 receptions. The Mississippi State Bulldogs ground game is averaging 46.7 yards per contest, and Dillon Johnson leads the way with 173 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Mississippi State is allowing 29 points and 355.8 yards per game. Jett Johnson leads the Mississippi State Bulldogs with 47 tackles, Randy Charlton has two sacks and Emmanuel Forbes has two interceptions.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have lost three of their last four home games. Ken Seals is completing 55.3 percent of his passes for 1,086 yards, five touchdowns and seven interceptions. Will Sheppard and Chris Pierce Jr. have combined for 791 receiving yards and four touchdowns, while Cam Johnson has 22 receptions. The Vanderbilt Commodores ground game is averaging 112.7 yards per contest, and Rocko Griffin leads the way with 284 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Vanderbilt is allowing 34 points and 450.3 yards per game. Ethan Barr leads the Vanderbilt Commodores with 51 tackles, Jaylen Mahoney has one sack and Dashaun Jerkins has two interceptions.

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October. The Commodores are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 games overall. The over is 4-1 in Commodores last 5 home games. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are the better team, obviously, but I’m not sure if they’re good enough to be this big of a favorite on the road. Mississippi State has no running game to speak of, the offense struggles to finish drives, and the defense can give up big plays in the passing game. The Vanderbilt Commodores have issues of their own, but they have been competitive against non-ranked teams, and they just took South Carolina down to the wire on the road. Give me the boatload of points with the home team.