USF Bulls (2-9) vs. UCF Knights (7-4)
November 26, 2021 3:30 pm EDT
The Line: UCF Knights -18 / USF Bulls +18; Over/Under: -64.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)
The UCF Knights and USF Bulls clash in week 13 AAC college football action from the Bounce House on Friday afternoon in Orlando.
The USF Bulls will be looking to rebound from a 45-14 road loss to Tulane in their last outing. Timmy McClain has thrown for 1,666 yards, 5 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 54.6% passing while Jaren Mangham has 578 rushing yards with 15 TDs and Kelley Joiner and Brian Battle each have 300+ rushing yards as well this season. Xavier Weaver leads the Bulls in receiving with 37 grabs for 640 yards while Jimmy Horn Jr. has 353 receiving yards and another four Bulls have at least 100 receiving yards this season. On defense, Antonio Grier leads the Bulls with 76 total tackles along with 3 sacks and a pair of interceptions while Mekhi LaPointe has a pair of interceptions as does Dwayne Boyles this season.
The UCF Knights will try to add to a 49-17 win over UConn in their last matchup. Mikey Keene leads the Knights by throwing for 1,471 yards, 15 touchdowns and 6 picks on 64.7% passing, while Johnny Richardson and Isaiah Bowser have combined for 1,147 yards on the ground this season. Ryan O’Keefe has 72 receptions for 682 yards and 6 TDs and Brandon Johnson’s got 10 receiving scores with 558 receiving yards and Haylon Robinson’s got 306 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Tatum Bethune leads the Knights with 83 total tacles while Big Kay Bryant has a team-high 5 sacks as well on the year.
USF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring 20 points or fewer the game prior and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 6-0-1 in their last games following an ATS loss. UCF is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall, while the over is 5-1 in their last 6 games following a win.
I get the case that could be made both ways as these are two teams that are pretty much ready for the season to finish, wish USF truing to avoid a double-digit loss season while UCF is pushing for 8 wins in a year that many had the Knights written off in. With that said, this feels like a ton of points to give up with UCF, but the Knights have been playing some solid defense, especially at home. USF has struggled on the road and were manhandled by Tulane of all teams in their last road game. Form like that inspires me very little on a game to game basis, so give me UCF laying the points here.