First Responder Bowl: Louisville vs Air Force 12/28/21 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Air Force Falcons and Louisville Cardinals square off Tuesday in the college football First Responders Bowl at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

The Louisville Cardinals come into this one repping the ACC after posting a 6-6 record this past season. Malik Cunningham has thrown for 2,734 yards, 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 62% passing while leading Louisville in rushing with 968 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns. Jalen Mitchell also has 722 rushing yards with 5 scores while Marshon Ford has a team-high 530 receiving yards and Jordan Watkins is right behind with 529 receiving yards. Tyler Harrell also has 443 receiving yards, while Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and Justin Marshall each have 300+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, C.J. Avery leads Louisville with 87 total tackles along with 3 sacks while Yasir Abdullah has a team-high 9 sacks this season.

The Air Force Falcons come in as a representative of the Mountain West after going 9-3 this past season. Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 932 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 45.7% passing while also rushing for 705 yards and 9 scores. . Brad Roberts has 1,279 yards and 13 touchdowns while DeAndre Hughes and Micah Davis have 471 and 360 rushing yards respectively this season. Emmanuel Michel also has chipped in 421 receiving yards with a big final game of the season to vault over Davis in the ranks. Brandon Lewis also leads Air Force’s receiving group with 16 catches for 447 yards. On defense, Vince Sanford has a team-high 9.5 sacks and 56 total tackles while Milton Bugg has 55 total tackles and Jordan Jackson has 7 sacks as well this season.

Louisville is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against the Mountain West while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 bowl games. Air Force is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bowl games while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog.

Normally, in a game that sees a ton of running the football, I’d side with the under. However, I’m expecting chunk running plays all day and possibly on every drive and while I understand a total in the 50s, I think this one could easily hit 60+ in a 35-28 type of game. Give me the over in this one.