College Football

Week 1: Nevada vs Texas State 9/3/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

Texas State Bobcats (0-0) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-0)
September 3, 2022 5:30 pm EDT
The Line: Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5 / Texas State Bobcats +3.5; Over/Under: +54.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Nevada Wolf Pack and Texas State Bobcats clash Saturday in week 1 college football action from Mackay Stadium.

The Texas State Bobcats will try to take another step in the right direction after going 4-8 last year, including a 3-5 mark in Sun Belt conference play. Brady McBride transferred within the Sun Belt to App State, but the Bobcats did a good job at keeping the job within the conference as well, bringing in Layne Hatcher via the transfer portal from Arkansas State as an experienced pivot to lead the charge for Texas State, and a QB that’s comfortable slinging the football around the field. Dillon Markiewicz is transferring in from Syracuse as another option, and Ty Evans is also in the mix, coming over from NC State. Calvin Hill returns in Texas State’s backfield after leading the Bobcats with 696 rushing yards while Jahmyl Jeter’s also back after logging 8 rushing scores and 384 rushing yards last season. The receiving corps is pretty much in tact as well, returning Javen Banks who had a team-high 553 yards and 5 TDs and Marcell Barbee’s also back after chipping in a team-high 40 catches last season while Demarcus Gregory transfers in from USF to aid the receiving group. On defense, a lot of the production is back with Nico Ezidore, Gjemar Daniels and Samuel Obtang leading the pass rush up front while Sione Tupou is back after finishing second on the year with 75 tackles for Texas State last season. Issiah Nixon also returns at LB after leading the Bobcats with 4 sacks last season, while DeJordan Mask and Kordell Rodgers make up a pair of capable defensive backs after the Bobcats lost Zion Childress to Kentucky.

The Nevada Wolf Pack started the year on a high note after a 23-12 win over New Mexico State in their season opener. Shane Illingworth threw for 51 yards on 7 of 12 passing while Nate Cox added 27 passing yards on 7 of 11 passing. Toa Taua rushed for a team-high 109 yards on 19 carries while Devonte Lee had 61 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 13 carries. Tyrese Mack led the Wolf Pack with 4 grabs for 40 yards while Jamaal Bell added 3 receptions of his own in the winning effort. On defense, Jaden Dedman, Tyson Williams and Bentlee Sanders each had a team-high 5 total tackles with Dedman logging a team-high 4 solo tackles. Isaiah Essissima added a pair of interceptions for Nevada while the aforementioned Williams and Sanders each had an INT as well in the win.

Texas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on turf while the under is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall and 24-8 in their last 32 road games. Nevada is 19-9 in their last 28 games overall and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in September while the over is 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games.

I get why a low line with Nevada is tempting here as the Wolf Pack have had a game to shake off the rust and the Bobcats still have to get chemistry going with a new QB at game speed. However, the Wolf Pack weren’t all that good against New Mexico State as Nevada never really felt safe and in the clear. It took a while for the Wolf Pack to get going offensively and in the end, I think the Aggies had some questionable play-calling that handed the game and for us bettors, the cover, to Nevada. Texas State’s got some solid pieces and a lot of returning production at the skill positions and I think the could keep this one close if not win outright. I like what Jake Spavital’s doing in San Marcos, and I’ll take the Bobcats plus the points here.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick: Texas State +3.5

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Chris Ruffolo

Chris joined the Sports Chat Place team in August 2016 and has a proven system that combines multiple analytical and situational statistics and trends to give out thousands of winning picks over the last three years with winning records across all of the top leagues, Follow Chris Ruffolo on Twitter @ruffthepickdawg

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