Florida State vs Florida 11/25/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles meet in a week 13 college football matchup from Doak S. Campbell Stadium on Friday night.

The Florida Gators will look to finish strong after a 31-24 upset loss to Vanderbilt last time out as 13.5-point favorites. Anthony Richardson’s thrown for 2,351 yards, 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 55.7% passing as well as 613 rushing yards and 9 TDs. Montrell Johnson Jr. has a team-high 742 rushing yards with 9 scores of his own and Trevor Etienne has 576 rushing yards with 5 touchdowns this season. Justin Shorter has a team-high 577 receiving yards while Ricky Pearsall has 448 receiving yards and Xzavier Henderon has a team-high 38 receptions for 410 receiving yards so far this season. On defense, Rashad Torrence II has a team-high 76 total tackles including 46 solo tackles while Florida’s defensive unit as a whole has combined for 19 sacks and 9 interceptions this season.

The Florida State Seminoles will hope to build on their four-game win streak after a 49-17 win over Louisiana last time out. Jordan Travis has thrown for 2,526 yards, 21 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while Trey Benson has 854 rushing yards with 6 touchdowns this season. Treshaun Ward has 538 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns and Lawrance Toafili has 422 rushing yards and 5 scores as well this season. Johnny Wilson leads FSU’s receiving group with 33 grabs for 649 yards and 5 touchdowns while Ontaria Wilson has 393 receiving yards as well. Mycah Pittman also has 305 receiving yards while the Seminoles also have a trio of 200+ yard receivers and four more 100+ yard receivers this season. On defense, Jammie Robinson has a team-high 76 total tackles and Jared Verse has a team-high 7.5 sacks. Florida State’s defense has 33 sacks and 7 interceptions as a unit this season.

Florida is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the ACC while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS loss. Florida State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games while the under is 7-1 in their last 8 games in November.

I get the case to be made for either side here, and in this rivalry you can throw trends and records out the window. That being said, this is looking like an over to me, as both teams’ offenses are built well to exploit the top weakness on the other side as Florida can run the football against the FSU rush defense which is much weaker than their pass defense, while the red hot FSU offense should have a field day against this Gators defense, especially the secondary. I love the over here.