Oregon Ducks (9-3) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4)
December 28, 2022 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: North Carolina Tar Heels +9.5 / Oregon Ducks -9.5 ; Over/Under: 73.5
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The North Carolina Tar Heels and Oregon Ducks clash Wednesday in the college football Holiday Bowl from Petco Park. Oregon managed a 9-3 run this season. The Ducks lost to Oregon State in their last game. As for North Carolina, they’re 9-4 overall after a lost to Clemson in their most recent appearance. Check back all season long for free college football picks at SCP Betting.
Oregon lost in a blowout to Georgia in their opener. The Ducks then took out Eastern Washington, BYU, Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, California and Colorado in succession. After a loss to Washington, Oregon beat Utah.
In the matchup versus Oregon State back on November 26, the Ducks had a 31-17 lead going into the fourth quarter. Oregon was stunned with 21 points from the Beavers and lost 38-34. QB Bo Nix had 327 yards and two scores; Noah Whittington added 81 rush yards and a TD.
Over on the North Carolina side, they managed to go 5-1 over their first six with wins over Florida A&M, App State, Georgia State, Virginia Tech and Miami-FL. The Tar Heels went 4-2 over the next half-dozen, falling to Georgia Tech and NC State.
On December 3 versus Clemson in the ACC title game, North Carolina was overmatched. The Tar Heels were down 24-10 by halftime and didn’t score in the second for a 39-10 loss. QB Drake Maye posted 268 yards with two picks, and Elijah Green rushed for 65 yards.
The Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. Oregon is 2-5 ATS in the last seven bowl games.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five versus the Pac-12 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after an ATS loss. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS in the last seven bowl games.
PICK: I might take a stab on the Tar Heels in this one. North Carolina had a rough game versus Clemson in the ACC Championship, notching three turnovers a 9-of-16 rate on third-down conversions. It’s been a three-game losing streak for North Carolina—however they lost two of those by a combined seven points and the last pair against ranked teams. When the Tar Heels are rolling, they can score quite well. UNC posted 27 or more points in 11 of their first 12 outings.
As for Oregon, they’re going to want to get that bad fourth-quarter implosion off their minds quickly here. The good news is that the Ducks are a talented squad that should be able to get right back to business. The bad news is that they won’t have edge rusher DJ Johnson (he’s heading for the draft). I like Oregon to rebound and play well here, but I think North Carolina can tag along for the cover.