Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs Kansas State 12/31/22 College Football Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Kansas State Wildcats clash Saturday in the college football Sugar Bowl from the Caesars Superdome.

The Kansas State Wildcats come into the bowl game at 10-3 on the year on behalf of the Big 12. Will Howard’s thrown for 1,423 yards, 15 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 61.6% passing. Deuce Vaughn has a team-high 1,425 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season. Malik Knowles leads K-State’s receiving group with 47 grabs for 719 receiving yards while Phillip Brooks has 41 receptions for 543 yards with 4 TDs and Kade Warner has 408 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns as well this season. Ben Sinnott also has 399 receiving yards with 5 TDs as well this season. On defense, Austin Moore has a team-high 85 total tackles while Felix Anudike-Uzomah has a team-high 8.5 sacks and Brendan Mott has 6 sacks as well on the year. As a unit, Kansas State’s defense has 28 sacks and 16 interceptions so far this season.

The Alabama Crimson Tide will enter the bowl game on behalf of the SEC at 10-2 on the year. Bryce Young has thrown for 3,007 yards, 27 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 64.1% passing while Jahmyr Gibbs leads the Tide in rushing with 850 rushing yards along with 7 touchdowns and Jase McClellan has 613 rushing yards and 6 scores as well. Ja’Corey Brooks leads the Tide with 37 catches for 623 yards and 7 touchdowns while Jermaine Burton has 590 receiving yards and another three Alabama receivers have 300+ receiving yards, including Traeshon Holden who has 6 receiving TDs this season. On defense, DeMarcco Hellams has a team-high 95 total tackles and Will Anderson Jr. has a team-high 10 sacks this season.

Kansas State is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games while the under is 5-2 in their last 7 non-conference games. Alabama is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the Big 12 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 bowl games.

I get the case to be made for Alabama laying points here, but we’ve already seen the line drop from the open and I think it’s going to continue to drop. I have to think that motivation, or a lack thereof, will be at play for Alabama after what they would consider a disappointing season after not reaching the college football playoffs, and one also has to wonder how many opt outs we see for guys like Bryce Young (who is expected to be in the mix for the #1 overall pick), DE Will Anderson (who many have going in the top-5) and RB Jahmyr Gibbs (who many believe is a first round RB). I haven’t seen any opt outs for K-State and that continuity is going to be big for Chris Klieman’s group here. Give me the Wildcats and the points.