Morehead State Eagles vs. SE Missouri State Redhawks - 3/4/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
SE Missouri State Redhawks (13-16) at Morehead State Eagles (15-16)
College Basketball: Wednesday, March 4, 2015 at 7:00 pm (Nashville Municipal Auditorium)
The Line: Morehead State Eagles -3 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The SE Missouri State Redhawks and Morehead State Eagles will square off at the Nashville Municipal Auditorium in Nashville, Tennessee in first-round action of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament.
SE Missouri State finished the season with a 13-16 record and earned the 8th seed with a 7-9 record in the OVC. SE Missouri State was projected to be one of the better teams in the OVC as they returned the majority of their team that finished 8-8 in conference play last year however, struggled to come anywhere near the 82.9 ppg they averaged last year that led the OVC. SE Missouri State is currently ranked 276th in the RPI Standings and has played the 295th ranked SOS. Although SE Missouri State was unable to beat the top-tier teams in the OVC this year, they did play Belmont and Murray State tough during the season as they dropped a 78-77 game at Belmont and lost at home to Murray State 94-92 in OT.
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On the season, SE Missouri State averaged 69.4 ppg (ranked 125th) on 43.9% shooting (ranked 43.6). The Red Hawks averaged 6.3 three-pointers per game (ranked 179th) on 34.1% three-point shooting (ranked 178th). SE Missouri State committed 13.0 turnovers per game (ranked 212th). Defensively, SE Missouri State allowed 68.4 ppg (ranked 236th) on 43.6% shooting (ranked 206th). The Red Hawks averaged 7.4 spg (ranked 57th) and 4.4 bpg (ranked 69th) however, committed 19.8 fouls per game (ranked 280th). Leading the way for SE Missouri State this season was Jarekious Bradley (15.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 apg) and Antonius Cleveland (10.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.8 apg).
Morehead State finished the season with a 15-16 record and earned the 5th seed with a 10-6 record in the OVC. Morehead State had plenty of optimism heading into this season and although they finished 10-6 OVC, the Eagles have to feel that they didn’t live up to their potential on the season. Morehead State has been solid on both ends of the court all the season, but has really struggled with fouls on the defensive end which have allowed their opponents to win games on the free-throw line. Morehead got some good experience in their non-conference schedule as they played Cincinnati (69-61 Loss), Ohio State (87-71 Loss) and Green Bay (66-50 loss). Their biggest win of the season was at home against Belmont in which they won 73-71.
On the season, Morehead State has averaged 70.5 ppg (ranked 93rd) on 44.0% shooting (ranked 142nd). The Eagles are shooting 71.5% from the free-throw line (ranked 84th) and averaged 14.7 apg (ranked 53rd). Defensively, Morehead State has allowed opponents to average 65.7 ppg (ranked 145th) on 43.4% shooting (ranked 199th). The Eagles average 8.3 spg (ranked 16th) and have a rebound margin of 5.4 (ranked 31st). Leading the way for Morehead State this season has been Angelo Warner (12.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Brent Arrington (11.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.0 spg).
The Redhawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday games. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
In their first match-up of the season, Morehead State was able to defeat SE Missouri State 70-57 at SE Missouri State. Although Morehead State only shot 39.4% from the field and 25.0% from beyond the arc, they were able to get the convincing victory by getting 20 more shots than SE Missouri State as they forced the Redhawks into committing 21 turnovers and outrebounded them by a 44-35 margin. Both of these teams are experienced although I feel that Morehead State is the better here and as long as they can stay out of foul trouble that they’ll do enough to win and cover the spread in this one. Take Morehead State to cover.