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Missouri State Bears vs. Southern Illinois Salukis - 3/5/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Southern Illinois Salukis (11-20) at Missouri State Bears (11-19)

College Basketball: Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 7:05 pm (Scottrade Center)

The Line: Missouri State Bears +1.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: The Valley

The Southern Illinois Salukis and Missouri State Bears will face off at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri in the first round of the MVC Men’s Tournament this Thursday night.

Southern Illinois finished the season with an 11-20 record and earned the 9th seed with a 4-14 MVC record.  The Salukis were projected to finish about where they ended up as although they had experience bringing back four-starters from last year’s team, they still needed to replace their leading scorer Desmar Jackson and would have no scholarship seniors on this year’s team. Although Southern Illinois was solid on the defensive side, they really struggled offensively. Currently, the Salukis are ranked 283rd in the RPI standings and has played the 226th ranked SOS. Southern Illinois highlight victory of the season game in early February when they were able to defeat Illinois State, 65-59, at home.

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Missouri State Bears vs. Southern Illinois Salukis - 3/5/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction


On the season, Southern Illinois is averaging 60.3 ppg (ranked 320th) on 42.2% shooting (ranked 237th). The Salukis averaged 4.3 three-pointers per game (ranked 332nd) and shot 69.8% from the free-throw line (ranked 143rd). Southern Illinois had a 0.66 assist/turnover ratio (ranked 333rd) and committed 12.8 turnovers per game (ranked 200th). Defensively, Southern Illinois held their opponents to 62.6 ppg (ranked 79th) on 44.8% shooting (ranked 270th). The Salukis averaged 6.6 spg (ranked 135th) and had a rebound margin of 1.5 (ranked 132nd). Leading the way for Southern Illinois was Anthony Beane (16.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.2 spg) and Jordan Caroline (9.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg).

Missouri State had high expectations going into the season, however, ended up just 11-19 on the season and earned the 8th seed in the MVC tournament with a 5-13 conference record. Missouri State had 4 starters returning including the 2013 MVC Freshman of the year in Marcus Marshall who missed the majority of his sophomore campaign due to a knee injury. Early in conference play, when the Bears were able .500 on the season, Marcus Marshall was suspended for a game and soon after that, asked to be released from the team as he planned to transfer to another program. After Marshall and his 19.5 ppg left, Missouri State really struggled offensively and went just 3-10 for the remainder of the regular season. Missouri State is ranked 226th in the RPI Standings and has played the 92nd ranked SOS.

On the season, Missouri State is averaging 60.1 ppg (ranked 323rd) on 40.7% shooting (ranked 294th). The Bears average 5.1 three-pointers per game (ranked 284th) and shoot 73.3% from the free-throw line (ranked 39th). Missouri State commits 12.0 turnovers per game (ranked 114th). Defensively, Missouri State is holding their opponents to 64.5 ppg (ranked 122nd) on 42.7% shooting (ranked 162nd). The Bears average 5.2 spg (ranked 293rd) and commit 17.8 personal fouls per game (ranked 143rd). Leading the way for Missouri State since Marshall’s departure has been Camyn Boone (8.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Austin Ruder (8.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg).

The Salukis are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bears are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Missouri State was able to defeat Southern Illinois in both match-ups this year, including game after Marcus Marshall left the program. We should expect this to be a low scoring affair as both teams have limited weapons on offensive and that in their two games this year the average combined points in the two match-ups was just 100.5 points. I’m probably staying away from this game when it comes to the ATS pick, as I’m more interesting to see what the O/U line is set. The O/U was set at 118.5 in their last match-up and if this line is anywhere near that again, I’ll be going under as under is 6-0 in the last 6 games when these two play each other. Take the under as long  as it’s not below 115. 

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Please Check Back When the O/U is Posted. Take Under if the line is 115 or more.

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