OVC Conference Tournament Quarterfinals: Morehead State Eagles vs. Tenn-Martin Skyhawks - 3/5/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Morehead State Eagles (16-16) at Tenn-Martin Skyhawks (18-11)
College Basketball: Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 7:00 pm EDT (Nashville Municipal Auditorium)
The Line: Morehead State Eagles -2 -- Over/Under:133.5 See the Latest Odds
TV: OVC Digital Network
The Morehead State Eagles and Tenn-Martin Skyhawks will face off in the quarterfinals of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament at the Nashville Municipal Auditorium this Thursday night.
The Morehead State Eagles was able to advance in their first-round match up in the OVC conference tournament last night by defeating the SE Missouri State Redhawks, 79-74. Morehead State is an experience team that can make a run in this tournament, however to do so, they need to continue to move their feet on defense as they averaged 23.3 personal fouls per game which ranked 344th in the country. In their victory against SE Missouri State, Morehead State shot 44.8% from the field and 46.2% (6-13) from beyond the arc. The Eagles struggled with fouls as they committed 25 personal fouls, however, was able to combat the 27 made free-throw made by the Redhawks by causing 17 turnovers and getting 13 more shot opportunities in the game. Leading the way for Morehead State was Billy Reader who had 18 points and 10 rebounds. On the season, the Eagles average 70.5 ppg (ranked 93rd) and averaged 14.7 apg (ranked). Defensively, Morehead State held their opponents to 65.7 ppg (ranked 145th). The Eagles committed and average of 14.0 turnovers per game (ranked 292nd). Leading the way for the Eagles on the season was Angelo Warner (12.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.6 apg) and Brent Arrington (11.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.3 apg, 2.0 spg).
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The Tenn-Martin Skyhawks finished the season with an 18-11 record and earned the 4th-seed in the OVC tournament as they finished 10-6 in conference play. Tenn-Martin finished with the worst record in the OVC last year and although the Skyhawks brought in a lot of young talent, they were still projected to be near the bottom of the OVC standings this year. Tenn-Martin surprised a lot of teams this year as they ended up being a solid team that could get it down on both ends of the court. The Skyhawks are ranked 169th in the RPI Standings and has played the 310th ranked SOS. Tenn-Martin didn’t have a statement win on the season, however, played OVC leader, Murray State, tough twice losing to them 65-62 & 73-67 in their two contests this season.
On the season, Tenn-Martin is averaging 69.8 ppg (ranked 107th) on 47.1% shooting (ranked 35th). The Skyhawks average 7.3 three-pointers per game (ranked 76th) on 38.4% three-point shooting (ranked 42nd). Tenn-Martin is committing 11.4 turnovers per game (ranked 58th) and shoot 69.3% from the free-throw line (ranked 160th). Defensively, Tenn-Martin is allowing their opponents to average 64.6 ppg (ranked 125th) on 43.0% shooting (ranked 181st). The Skyhawks pull down 34.1 total rpg (ranked 189th). Tenn-Martin averages just 2.0 bpg (ranked 329th) and 5.1 spg (ranked 304th). Leading the way for Tenn-Martin was Deville Smith (14.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.4 apg) and Marshun Newell (13.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 2.6 apg).
The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Skyhawks are 5-1 ATS in thier last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
This should be another good game tomorrow night as in their first match-up of the season, Tenn-Martin was able to pull out a 75-72 OT victory at home. In their first match-up, Tenn-Martin was able to shoot 43.8% from beyond the arc which helped them secure the victory. UT-Martin is going to get to line a bit and although they shot 91.7% (11-12) in their match their season average is at 69.3% (ranked 160th). The line hasn’t been posted yet for this match-up but I think that this one is going to come down to the wire and think Morehead State has a real shot to win this one. I think Morehead State will be getting a few points in this one and if they are I’m going with the Eagles in this one. Please check back when the line is posted for my official pick.
Update - 3/5/15: Morehead State is actually giving acouple of points in this one, however, I still feel the Eagles are going to win this one and I'm going to take Morehead State to cover this small spread.