MWC Quarterfinal-Colorado State Rams vs. Fresno State Bulldogs - 3/12/15 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Fresno State Bulldogs (15-16) at Colorado State Rams (26-5)
College Basketball: Thursday, March 12, 2015 at 11:30 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)
The Line: Colorado State Rams -8 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The Colorado State Rams battle the Fresno State Bulldogs in the Mountain West quarterfinals.
USA TODAY Sports
The Colorado State Rams were in the running for the Mountain West championship until the final week of the season but they needed too many things to fall in to place and none happened. The third seed Rams were a fantastic 26-5 overall and a solid 13-5 in the conference. CSU was a complete team with 73 points scored and 64 allowed with both having a hand in a 7-1 finish to the year and a 13-0 start to the season.
The Rams have played competitively throughout the season but their forte’ is putting the ball in the basket and they are built to score the basketball. JJ Avila is the biggest threat at 17 points and 7.5 rebounds on 56% shooting with Stanton Kidd adding 11.5 points and nearly five boards on 46%. Daniel Berjarano rounded out the top scorers with eleven points and seven boards but he is a poor shooter at 35% and if Colorado State has any offensive issues it’s several contributors are subpar marksman.
The Fresno State appeared if they would challenge in the Mountain West but in the end their 10-8 conference mark was good for 6th and their 15-16 record leaves the team needing a strong run in the playoffs to snag an invite to one of the NCAA tournaments. The Bulldogs were outscored 66-65 and did well when controlling the scoreboard and not so well if opponents approached to points or more because this offense isn’t big and doesn’t score in bunches.
The Bulldogs do have three double digit scorers but lean hard on leading scorer Marvelle Harris who averages almost 17 points and five boards on 44% accuracy. Paul Watson and Julien Lewis are eleven point scorers but are not great shooters in the 39%-40% range. A big key to the mix is Cezar Guerrero who has averaged eleven points in just 14 games and the more options Fresno State has the better their chances.
The Bulldogs are 22-9-3 ATS in their last 34 games following a S.U. loss and 21-44 ATS in their last 65 Thursday games. Fresno State are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games. The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Colorado State are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Mountain West and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 Thursday games. The line looks about right so I’ll go with the team that has a lot to play for…