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Duke Blue vs. San Diego State - NCAA Tournament - 3/22/15 Pick, Odds, and Prediction

San Diego State Aztecs (27-8) at Duke Blue Devils (30-4)

College Basketball: Sunday, March 22, 2015 at 2:40 pm (Time Warner Cable Arena)

The Line: Duke Blue Devils -9.5 -- Over/Under: 128.5 See the Latest Odds


The (8) San Diego State Aztecs and (1) Duke Blue Devils will battle at Time Warner Cable Arena this Sunday afternoon in the 3rd round of the NCAA Tournament.

The San Diego State Aztecs (27-8, 14-4 MW) uncharacteristically utilized the three-pointer in their 76-64 victory over the St. John’s Red Storm this past Friday night. The Aztecs shot 40.9% (9-22) from beyond the arc while holding St. John’s to just 17.6% (3-17) from three-point range. Leading the way for San Diego State was J.J. O’Brien who had 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists in the victory. The Aztecs were ranked 27th in the RPI Standings and played the 79th ranked SOS. On the season, San Diego State has been led by Winston Shepard (11.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 1.9 apg) and Aqeel Quinn (10.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.6 apg). San Diego State is averaging 61.8 ppg (ranked 300th) on 41.9% shooting (ranked 258th). The Aztecs shoot just 62.9% from the free throw line (ranked 331st) and commit 11.4 turnovers per game (ranked 64th). San Diego State is holding teams to just 53.1 ppg (ranked 2nd) on 37.7% shooting (ranked 5th). The Aztecs commit just 14.3 personal fouls per game (ranked 8th) and have a rebound margin of 3.2 (ranked 73rd).

Duke Blue vs. San Diego State - NCAA Tournament - 3/22/15 Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Duke Blue Devils (30-4, 15-3 ACC) took advantage of their size a cruised to an 85-56 victory against the NEC Champion Robert Morris Colonials this past Friday night.  The Blue Devils shot an incredible 63.0% from the field and outrebounded the Colonials by a 31-16 margin. Leading the way for Duke was Quinn Cook who had 22 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals in the victory. Duke was ranked 5th in the RPI Standings and played the 11th ranked SOS. On the season, the Blue Devils were led by Jahlil Okafor (17.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.4 bpg) and Quinn Cook (15.9 ppg, 3.3, 2.8 apg). Duke is averaging 80.6 ppg (ranked 3rd) on 50.2% shooting (ranked 3rd). the Blue Devils average 7.6 three-pointers per game (ranked 58th) and commit 11.2 turnovers per game (ranked 57th). Defensively, Duke is allowing their opponents to average 65.6 ppg (ranked 144th) on 42.9% shooting (ranked 173rd). The Blue Devils pull down 37.33 total rpg (ranked 43rd) and have a rebound margin of 6.2 (ranked 22nd).

The Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win. The Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.

San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and if they can continue to hit the three-pointer like they did against St. John’s, they’ll have a chance to do some damage in this tournament. Duke is one of the most talented teams in the country and has one of the best players in the country in their big-man, Jahlil Okafor. I think San Diego State and their head coach Steve Fisher will come up with a game plan to slow down the Duke offensive and keep this one a low-scoring affair. I expect to be a good game and that this is too many points for Duke to be giving a solid defensive team. Take San Diego State and the points.  

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