Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Texas State - 1/28/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Texas State Bobcats (9-7) at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (9-8)
College Basketball: Thursday, January 28, 2016 at 8:15 pm (Cajundome)
The Line: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns -11.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The Texas State Bobcats will travel to the Cajundome to take on the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns this Thursday night in College Basketball action.
The Texas State Bobcats snapped their two game losing streak and improved to 9-7 (3-4 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the Arkansas State Red Wolves, 78-68, this past Saturday. Texas State got one of their best offensive performances of the season and used an 11-0 run in the 2nd half to secure the win. Texas State shot 45.5% from the field and 60.0% (9-15) from beyond the arc in the victory. The Bobcats allowed the Red Wolves to shoot 43.1% from the field and outrebounded Arkansas State by a 38-28 margin. Leading the way for Texas State was Cameron Naylor who had 20 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist, and a steal. On the season, the Bobcats have been led by Kavin Gilder-Tilbury (12.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.9 apg), Emani Gant (12.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.1 apg), and Ethan Montalvo (11.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.4 spg). Offensively, Texas State is averaging 68.4 ppg on 43.1% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The Bobcats average 5.0 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 0.91. Defensively, Texas State is holding their opponents to an average of 62.2 ppg on 42.1% shooting. The Bobcats have a rebound margin of 2.8 and a turnover margin of 3.5.
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The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns won their 4th straight game and improved to 9-8 (5-3 Sun Belt) on the season after defeating the Troy Trojans, 88-65, this past Saturday. Louisiana Lafayette used two double-digit runs in the 1st half to get a 49-31 lead at halftime and had little trouble cruising to a victory in the 2nd half. Louisiana Lafayette was outstanding offensively as they shot 57.1% from the field and 46.2% (6-13) from beyond the arc. The Ragin Cajuns held the Trojans to 41.7% shooting from the field and forced Troy into committing 18 turnovers. Leading the way for Louisiana Lafayette was Shawn Long who had a double-double with 20 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and a steal. On the season, the Ragin Cajuns have been led by Shawn Long (18.7 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.7 bpg), Kasey Shepherd (12.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 ag, 1.8 spg), and Jay Wright (9.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.8 apg). Offensively, Louisiana Lafayette is averaging 82.0 ppg on 45.1% shooting from the field and 29.9% shooting from beyond the arc. The Ragin Cajuns average 6.6 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.04. Defensively, Louisiana Lafayette is allowing their opponents to average 74.9 ppg on 43.5% shooting. The Ragin Cajuns have a rebound margin of 6.8 and average 7.2 steals per game.
The Bobcats are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games and 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 road games. The Ragin Cajuns are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Texas State is generally known for their slow style of play and gritty defense that ranks 13th in the country in scoring defense and 16th in turnover margin. Louisiana Lafayette has arguably the most talented team in the Sun Belt this season and has an outstanding offense led by Shawn Long. I generally I like take double-digit points spreads for solid defensive teams, however, I don’t see the Bobcats shooting like they did against Arkansas State and I think Ragin Cajuns will be able to do enough on the offensive end to cover this spread. Take Louisiana Lafayette to cover.