Oregon vs. Arizona - 3/11/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Oregon Ducks (26-6) at Arizona Wildcats (25-7)
College Basketball: Friday, March 11, 2016 at 9:00 pm (MGM Grand)
The Line: Oregon Ducks -1.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: PAC 12 Networks; National Feeds
The 15th ranked Arizona Wildcats and 8th ranked Oregon Ducks will face off in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Men’s Tournament this Friday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
The 4-seed Arizona Wildcats was able to get out to a big halftime lead and held on late to defeat the 5-seed Colorado Buffaloes, 82-78, on Thursday night. Arizona was outstanding defensively in the first half which allowed them to get out to a 37-20 halftime lead however, had to hang on late after allowing the Buffaloes to score 58 2nd half points. Arizona shot 45.8% from the field and 50.0% (6-12) from beyond the arc. The Wildcats held the Buffaloes to 34.2% shooting from the field and was outrebounded by Colorado by a 51-35 margin. Leading the way for Arizona was Ryan Anderson who had a double-double with 17 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. On the season, the Wildcats have been led by Ryan Anderson (15.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg), Gabe York (15.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.4 apg), and Allonzo Trier (14.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.1 apg). Offensively, Arizona is averaging 80.9 ppg on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from beyond the arc. The Wildcats average 6.4 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.17. Defensively, Arizona is allowing their opponents to average 67.9 ppg on 41.4% shooting. The Wildcats have a rebound margin of 9.9 and a turnover margin of -1.0.
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The top-seed Oregon Ducks got a tough battle from the Washington Huskies, but was able to hold off Washington late to defeat the Huskies by an 83-77 margin to advance in the Pac-12 Tournament. Washington got out to an early 26-14 lead in this one but Oregon was able to fight back to take a 39-38 halftime lead and was able to hit their FT’s late in the game to secure the win. Oregon shot 43.9% from the field and outrebounded Washington by a 46-33 margin. The Ducks held the Huskies to 41.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% (8-24) from beyond the arc. Leading the way for Oregon was Chris Boucher who had a double-double with 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 blocks. On the season, the Ducks have been led by Dillon Brooks (16.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.2 spg), Elgin Cook (14.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 spg), and Chris Boucher (12.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 3.2 bpg). Offensively, Oregon is averaging 77.9 ppg on 46.6% shooting from the field and 34.0% shooting from beyond the arc. The Ducks average 6.7 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.17. Defensively, Oregon is holding their opponents to an average of 68.6 ppg on 42.6% shooting. The Ducks have a rebound margin of 3.2 and a turnover margin of 2.4.
The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in thier last 5 games overall and 0-4 ATS in thier last 4 Friday games. The Ducks are 12-1 ATS in thier last 13 Friday games and 9-3 ATS in thier last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Oregon was able to defeat Arizona in their only matchup of the season as the Ducks defeated the Wildcats by an 83-75 margin on the road in late January. Arizona certainly has the talent to defeat anyone in the Pac-12 however, can be a bit inconsistent on the defense end and have trouble creating turnovers as they average just 4.9 steals per game. Oregon has been solid throughout the season and although they are not as strong a team away from their home court, have one of the most athletic teams in the country that can force teams into making many turnovers. Oregon had no trouble defeating Arizona on their home court and as I just can’t trust the Wildcats to play 40 minutes of solid basketball, I’m initially leaning towards taking the Ducks as long as they are only favored by a few points. Please check back for updates when the line is released.
Update - The line was where I orginally expected it to be so I'm sticking with the Ducks to cover this small spread.