Dayton vs. Richmond - 3/11/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Richmond Spiders (16-15) at Dayton Flyers (17-12)
College Basketball: Friday, March 11, 2016 at 12:00 pm (Barclays Center)
The Line: Dayton Flyers -4.5 -- Over/Under: 139.5 See the Latest Odds
The Richmond Spiders and Dayton Flyers will face off in the quarterfinals of the A-10 Men’s Championship this Thursday afternoon at the Barclays Center.
The 9-seed Richmond Spiders used a big first half and was able to hang on late to defeat the Fordham Rams, 70-55, on Wednesday afternoon. Richmond led by a 38-22 margin at halftime but needed a late run to secure the victory after the Rams pulled within a point, 46-45, with 8:41 remaining. Richmond shot 48.1% from the field and 25.0% (4-16) from beyond the arc. The Spiders held the Rams to 38.9% shooting from the field and 19.0% (4-21) from three-point range. Leading the way for Richmond was T.J. Cline who had 17 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists. On the season, the Spiders have been led by T.J. Cline (18.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg), Terry Allen (17.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.5 spg), and ShawnDre’ Jones (15.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.7 apg). Offensively, Richmond is averaging 77.5 ppg on 48.7% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The Spiders average 7.7 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.68. Defensively, Richmond is allowing their opponents to average 74.6 ppg on 45.3% shooting. The Spiders have a rebound margin of -5.0 and a turnover margin of 2.4.
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The Dayton Flyers struggled a bit down the stretch going just 3-3 in their last 6 games, however, still finished the season with an overall record of 24-6 while earning the top-seed in the A-10 Tournament. Dayton lost two of this last six games when Kendall Pollard was injured, but now that they seem fully healthy, could be a very dangerous team when it comes to the NCAA Tournament as they are solid on both sides of the ball as they are ranked 37th in the country in scoring defense and 71st in offensive FG%. On the season, the Flyers have been led by Charles Cooke who averaged 15.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.9 apg, 1.2 spg, and 1.2 bpg. Also contributing for the Flyers has been Dyshawn Pierre (12.6 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 2.4 apg), Scoochie Smith (11.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.1 apg, 1.1 spg), and Kendall Pollard (10.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.5 apg). Offensively, Dayton is averaging 73.1 ppg on 46.0% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from beyond the arc. The Flyers average 6.9 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.13. Defensively, Dayton is holding their opponents to an average of 65.7 ppg on 40.7% shooting from the field. The Flyers have a rebound margin of 5.3 and have a turnover ratio of -0.6.
THe Spiders are 1-4 ATS in thier last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 1-5 ATS in thier last 6 Friday games. The Flyers are 3-1-1 ATS in thier last 5 Friday games and 0-7-1 ATS in thier last 8 games overall.
Dayton was able to win in the only matchup against the two teams this season just a couple weeks ago as the Flyers fought back from a double-digit deficit midway through the 2nd half to win 85-84. Richmond heavily depends on their guard play to pile on the points as the Spiders don’t have much size down low and rank just 246th in scoring defensive. Dayton is solid defensive team that has the ability to beat anyone as shown with their wins against Iowa, Vanderbilt, and Monmouth during their non-conference schedule. Richmond was able to keep the game close against the Flyers at home but I just don’t seem them being able to put up that many points on Dayton again. The line has yet to be posted for this one but my initial thoughts is to take Dayton if there are favored by around 6-8 points. Please check back for updates when the line is posted.
Update - Dayton is favored be less than what I orginally expected and I'm going to roll with the Flyers to cover in this one.