Purdue vs. Illinois - 3/11/16 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Illinois Fighting Illini (15-18) at Purdue Boilermakers (24-7)
College Basketball: Friday, March 11, 2016 at 2:00 pm (Bankers Life Fieldhouse)
The Line: Purdue Boilermakers -11 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
The Illinois Fighting Illini and 13th ranked Purdue Boilermakers will square off in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Men’s Tournament this Friday afternoon at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
The 12-seed Illinois Fighting Illini blew a late 11-point lead late but got a late bucker by Malcolm Hill and was able to upset the 5-seed Iowa Hawkeyes, 68-66, on Thursday afternoon. Illinois was solid on the offensive end as they shot 44.8% from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from beyond the arc. The Fighting Illini held the Hawkeyes to 40.0% (8-20) from beyond the arc and won the turnover battle by an 18-14 margin. Leading the way for Illinois was Kendrick Nunn who had 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. On the season, the Fighting Illini have been led by Malcolm Hill (18.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg), Kendrick Nunn (15.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.4 spg), and Jalen Coleman-Lands (10.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg). Offensively, Illinois is averaging 72.7 ppg on 43.3% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc. The Fighting Illini average 8.2 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.28. Defensively, Illinois is allowing their opponents to average 74.6 ppg on 46.0% shooting. The Fighting Illini have a rebound margin of -4.9 and a turnover margin of 2.8.
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The 13th ranked Purdue Boilermakers finished their season with three straight wins and earned the 4-seed in the Big 10 Tournament with a 12-6 conference record and 24-7 overall record. Purdue was outstanding on both sides of the ball this season as they ranked 59th in the country in scoring offense and 28th in scoring defense. On the season, the Boilermakers have been led by A.J. Hammons who is averaging 14.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 2.6 bpg. Also chipping in for Purdue has been Vince Edwards (10.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.0 apg), Caleb Swanigan (10.4 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.9 apg), and Isaac Haas (9.8 rpg, 3.9 rpg). Offensively, Purdue is averaging 77.9 ppg on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from beyond the arc. The Boilermakers average 7.7 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.44. Defensively, Purdue is holding their opponents to an average of 64.9 ppg on 39.1% shooting. The Boilermakers have a rebound margin of 10.9 and average 4.7 blocks per game.
The Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in thier last 5 Friday games and 3-7-1 ATS in thier last 11 neutral site games. The Boilermakers are 3-0-1 ATS in thier last 4 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in thier last 4 vs. Big 10 opponents.
Illinois was able to pull off the upset of Purdue earlier in the season as they defeated the Boilermakers at home by an 84-70 margin, which ended up being Purdue’s biggest loss of the season. Illinois has an outstanding backcourt duo in Malcom Hill and Kendrick Nunn and can be very tough to beat when both players are producing at a high-level on the offensive end. Purdue is a solid team with one of the best big men in the country in A.J. Hammons, who should be able to help the Boilermakers to control the paint against the Fighting Illini. Illinois has been inconsistent this year, especially on the defensive end however, I like how the Fighting Illini are playing at the moment and as I think they’ll be getting at least 6-8 points in this one, I’m initially leaning towards taking Illinois. Please check back for updates when the line is posted.
Update: Illinois is getting more points than I expected and I still think that Illinois will be able to do enough to keep it within this double-digit spread. Take Illinois to cover.