Texas Southern vs. Alabama State - 3/6/18 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Alabama State Hornets (8-22) at Texas Southern Tigers (12-19)
College Basketball: Tuesday, March 6, 2018 at 9:00 pm (Health and PE Arena)
The Line: Texas Southern Tigers -11.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
We have some SWAC college basketball action on Tuesday night as the #3 seed Texas Southern Tigers battle against the #6 seed Alabama State Hornets.
The Alabama State Hornets got their hands on the #6 seed in the conference tournament after finishing the season with an 8-10 conference mark as part of their 8-22 overall record this season. It doesn’t take a math major to figure out that that means Alabama State lost their first 12 games of the regular season, but did schedule some tough competition along the way, including losses to Mississippi State, Iowa, South Dakota State, Oregon and Cincinnati, with each loss coming by 20+ points. Consistency was hard to come by for the Hornets as they never got more than one game above .500 in conference play, with their low point coming in the form of a 4 game losing skid while following that up with a 3 game win streak. Reginald Gee led the Hornets in scoring with 15.1 points per game while Branden Johnson led Alabama State in rebounding with 6.9 rebounds per game and Jacoby Ross led the way for ASU with 2.3 assists per game this season. As a team, Alabama State is scoring 68.4 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field, 32.6% from behind the arc and 65.8% shooting from the foul line this season.
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The Texas Southern Tigers got the #3 seed after finishing conference play with a 12-6 conference mark as part of their 12-19 overall record this season. Like the Hornets, Texas Southern went winless throughout conference play, but the Tigers played a laundry list of above average competition, highlighted by Gonzaga, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas, Clemson, Oregon, Baylor, TCU and BYU. The Tigers started SWAC play 3-0 but quickly fell to 4-3 before responding with 8 wins in their next 11 games, including 4 straight victories to finish the regular season. Demontrae Jefferson led Texas Southern with an average of 24.1 points per game while Marquis Salmon led the Tigers with 5.9 rebounds per game and Donte Clark led the Tigers in assists with 2.5 assists per game this season. As a team, Texas Southern is scoring 76.7 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field, 35.3% from behind the arc and 71.5% from the foul line this season.
Alabama State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a losing record while the over is 6-1 in their last 7 conference matchups. Texas Southern is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a win and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games while the over is 6-0 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
The recent trends would suggest pointing to taking the points with Alabama State. However, these teams don’t play too many lined games, and while both were battle tested in non-conference, I feel that the Tigers had the tougher lineup of opposition. Plus, the home team has had the bulk of the success ATS and the Tigers average margin of victory in winning both games against Alabama State this season was 16.5 points, so I’ll back the Tigers and lay the points to complete the 3-game sweep of the Hornets.