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UNLV vs. Air Force - 3/7/18 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Air Force Falcons (12-18) at UNLV Rebels (19-12)

College Basketball: Wednesday, March 7, 2018 at 2:00 pm (Thomas & Mack Center)

The Line: UNLV Rebels -11.5 -- Over/Under: 150 See the Latest Odds


We have some Mountain West conference first round action on Wednesday as the #9 seed Air Force Falcons take on the #8 seed UNLV Rebels in a college basketball matchup. 

The Air Force Falcons finished with the #9 seed after finishing conference play with a 6-12 mark in MWC play as part of their 12-18 overall record this season. The Falcons got out of their non-conference portion of the schedule at .500 with a 6-6 mark, including wins over Texas State, Canisius and Denver while falling to Army, UC-Riverside, Indiana, Colorado and Pacific to name a few. Mountain West play was not kind to Air Force, as the Falcons logged back-to-back wins just twice, starting conference play 0-4, 2-7 and 4-10 before splitting their last 4 games of the regular season. Lavelle Scottie led Air Force with 11.8 points per game while Trevor Lyons led the Falcons in rebounding and assists with 4.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. As a team, Air Force is scoring 67.8 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field, 32.6% from behind the 3-point line and 73.7% from the foul line this season.

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UNLV vs. Air Force - 3/7/18 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The UNLV Rebels finished with the #8 seed after finishing conference play with an 8-10 MWC mark as part of their 19-12 overall record, losing out on a head-to-head tiebreak with Utah State for the #7 seed. UNLV jumped out to a strong 6-0 start to the season, throwing in wins against Utah and Eastern Washington before losing back-to-back games against Arizona and Northern Iowa before finishing their non-conference schedule with 5 straight wins to enter conference play at 11-2. The Rebels struggled to find consistency early, alternating wins and losses through each of their first 8 games and splitting their first 10 at 5-5 before rattling off 3 straight wins and following that up with 5 straight losses to close out the season, including a 12-point road loss to the aforementioned Utah State Aggie in their regular season finale. Brandon McCoy leads the Rebels by averaging a double-double per game with 16.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game while Jordan Johnson leads the Rebels with 5.9 assists per game this season. As a team, UNLV is scoring 83.3 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field, 33.3% shooting from behind the arc and 70.2% from the foul line this season.

Air Force is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games while the over is 8-1 in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record. UNLV is 12-36-3 ATS in their last 51 conference matchups and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall while the under is 6-2 in their last 8 neutral site games. Air Force is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

Air Force may not have had a lot of luck in the win column in conference this season, however the Falcons have been a pretty solid team ATS while UNLV has been poor on the road ATS, but in conference play as well, covering less than 25% of their conference games dating back 3-4 years. Add in Air Force’s success ATS in this matchup, and I think the Falcons are more than capable of keeping this one within single digits, so I’ll take Air Force and the points here.

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