Vermont vs. UMBC - 3/10/18 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
UMBC Retrievers (22-10) at Vermont Catamounts (27-6)
College Basketball: Saturday, March 10, 2018 at 11:00 am (Roy L Patrick Gymnasium)
The Line: Vermont Catamounts -11.5 -- Over/Under: 139 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPN 2
The UMBC Retrievers and Vermont Catamounts will face off at Patrick Gymnasium this Saturday morning in the Championship game of the America East Men’s Championship.
The 2-seed UMBC Retrievers won improved to 23-10 (12-4) on the season after defeating the Hartford Hawks, 76-60, this past Tuesday. UMBC led by a 32-25 margin at halftime and pulled away in the 2nd half after taking a 56-36 lead midway through the 2nd half. UMBC shot 47.3% from the field and outrebounded Hartford by a 41-32 margin in the victory. Leading the way for the Retrievers was K.J. Maura who had 18 points, 5 assists, 1 rebound, and a steal. On the season, UMBC is averaging 74.2 ppg on 44.5% shooting from the field. The Retrievers are averaging 10.2 three-pointers per game on 38.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, UMBC has been led by Jairus Lyles (19.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.1 spg), K.J. Maura (11.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.0 spg), Joe Sherburne (11.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.9 apg), Arkel Lamar (10.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.2 spg). Defensively, UMBC is allowing their opponents to average 69.7 ppg on 44.0% shooting from the field. The Retrievers have a rebound margin of -1.3 and turnover margin 2.5.
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The Vermont Catamounts improved to 27-6 (15-1) on the season after defeating the Stony Brook Seawolves, 70-51, this past Tuesday. Vermont was outstanding on the defensive end of the ball throughout the game and pulled away after a 7-0 Catamounts run gave Vermont a 54-37 lead with 7:57 left in regulation. Vermont shot 41.2% (7-17) from beyond the arc while holding Stony Brooks to 33.3% shooting from the field and 15.8% (3-19) from beyond the arc in the victory. Leading the way for the Catamounts was Drew Urquhart who had 19 points and 8 rebounds. On the season, Vermont is averaging 74.6 ppg on 48.9% shooting from the field. The Catamounts are averaging 7.7 three-pointers per game on 40.3% shooting from beyond the arc. Offensively, Vermont has been led by Trae Bell-Haynes (14.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.2 spg), Anthony Lamb (14.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), Payton Henson (12.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 apg), and Ernie Duncan (11.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.4 apg). Defensively, Vermont is holding their opponents to an average of 64.3 ppg on 43.1% shooting from the field. The Catamounts have a rebound margin of 4.8 and a turnover margin of 0.1.
The Retrievers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Catamounts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and just 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win.
Vermont defeated UMBC in both regular season matchups this season as the Catamounts won by a 71-56 margin at home in early January while defeating the Retrievers by an 81-53 margin on the road in early February.
UMBC has won 4 straight games and have been solid on both sides of the ball this season as they rank 104th in scoring defense, 18th in three-pointers made per game, and 39th in turnover margin. Vermont has won 5 straight games and has been led by their defense this season as they rank 13th in scoring defense and 46th in rebound margin. Vermont doesn’t have a completely healthy Anthony Lamb back who missed most of the 2nd half of the season due to injury, however, the Catamounts are by far the best team in the America East this season and as their defense has given UMBC trouble in both matchups this season, I think Vermont will be solid defensively on their home court and their offense will do just enough to cover this spread. Take Vermont to cover.