Toledo vs. Ball State - 2/29/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Ball State Cardinals (16-12) at Toledo Rockets (14-14)
College Basketball: Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 2:00 pm (Savage Arena)
The Line: Toledo Rockets -2.5 -- Over/Under: 135
The Ball State Cardinals and the Toledo Rockets meet in college basketball MAC-tion from the Savage Arena on Saturday afternoon.
The Ball State Cardinals will try to keep pace near the top of the MAC West division, sitting at 9-6 in conference play after a 71-61 win over Western Michigan last time out. Tahjai Teague leads the Cardinals in scoring and rebounding with 14.5 PPG and 9.1 RPG while Ishmael El-Amin is 2nd in scoring with 14.1 PPG and Jarron Coleman has a team-high 3 assists per game this season. As a team, Ball State is averaging 69 points on 42.6% shooting from the field, 33.8% from 3-point range and 67.8% from the foul line while allowing opposing teams to average 62.4 points on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31.4% from 3-point range this season. Ball State is 4-6 straight up and 4-6 against the spread on the road this season.
The Toledo Rockets will try to build some confidence down the stretch, sitting at 6-9 in conference play after a 93-81 win over Central Michigan last time out. Marreon Jackson leads Toledo in scoring and assists with 19.8 PPG and 5.6 APG while Luke Knapke has 15.7 PPG and Willie Jackson has 12.1 PPG and a team-high 11.8 RPG this season. Spencer Littleson also has 10.8 PPG for the Rockets this season. As a team, Toledo is averaging 75.4 points on 44.2% shooting from the field, 37% from 3-point range and 74.3% from the foul line while allowing opposing teams to average 70.7 points on 41.6% shooting from the field and 35% from 3-point range this season. Toledo is 7-6 straight up and 1-11 against the spread at home this season.
Head-to-head, the underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two teams and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the two teams.
I get that this is a low line for a Toledo team that’s 7-6 SU at home, but the Rockets are 1-11 ATS at home this season, and even with a low line, I’m not laying a bucket with Toledo at home given that record. Toledo’s been getting reasonably low lines at home a lot lately, but they’ve also not only been not covering, but the Rockets are also losing those games outright. Ball State has been playing some of the better basketball in the MAC this season and I just think that the Cardinals are in a spot to get a key win here, so I’ll take the free bucket with Ball State and put a bit on the ML as well.