Southern vs. Alabama State - 3/10/20 College Basketball Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama State Hornets (8-23) at Southern Jaguars (16-15)
College Basketball: Tuesday, March 10, 2020 at 8:30 pm (F.G. Clark Center)
The Line: Southern Jaguars -9 -- Over/Under: 128
The Alabama State Hornets and the Southern Jaguars meet in a SWAC conference tournament quarterfinal matchup from the F.G. Clark Activity Center on Tuesday night.
The Alabama State Hornets enter the conference tournament as the #7-seed, ending the year with a 7-11 mark in conference play after a 7-11 record in SWAC play as part of their 8-23 overall record this year. Tobi Ewuosho leads the Hornets in scoring and rebounding with 12.9 PPG and 6 RPG this season while Leon Daniels has 9.7 PPG and D.J. Heath has a team-high 2.3 APG this season. As a team, Alabama State is averaging 61.7 points on 38.6% shooting from the field, 30.6% from 3-point range and 62.7% from the foul line while allowing opposing teams to average 71.2 points on 45.7% shooting from the field and 33.1% from 3-point range this season. Alabama State is 2-15 straight up and 10-7 against the spread on the road this season.
The Southern Jaguars come into the SWAC tourney as the #2-seed, finishing the year with a 13-5 conference record as part of their 16-15 overall mark this season. Ahsante Shivers leads the Jaguars in scoring with 9.7 PPG while Micah Bradford has 8.6 PPG and a team-high 3.3 APG this season. Damiree Burns has 8.5 PPG and 4.6 RPG while Darius Williams has a team-high 6.1 RPG this season. As a team, Southern is averaging 69.9 points on 44.1% shooting from the field, 31.3% shooting from 3-point range and 68% from the foul line while allowing opposing teams to average 67.5 points on 43.5% shooting from the field and 32% from 3-point range this season. Southern is 10-1 straight up and 8-1 against the spread at home this season.
Head-to-head, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
You could make a case for Alabama State and the points as the road team’s had a lot of recent success against the number in this matchup. However, while the Hornets are 10-7 ATS on the road this season, a lot of those covers came with a lot heftier spreads, and Southern has been a covering machine at home this season, going 10-1 SU and 8-1 ATS as well as an 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS mark in their last 10 games. I just think the Jaguars are the better team playing better basketball here and I think a double-digit win is in the cards, so I’ll lay the points with Southern in this one.