Ball State vs Toledo College Basketball Picks, Odds, Predictions 2/6/21

The Toledo Rockets and the Ball State Cardinals meet in college basketball MAC-tion from the Worthen Arena on Saturday afternoon.

The Toledo Rockets will look to build on their five-game winning streak after a 91-76 win over Akron last time out. Marreon Jackson leads the Rockets in scoring and assists with 17 PPG and 5.7 APG with 4.9 RPG while Ryan Rollins has 14 PPG with 5.8 RPG this season. Spencer Littleson has 13.4 PPG and Sam Millner Jr. has 12.7 PPG with a team-high 6.4 RPG to lead the Rockets on the glass. JT Shumate has 12.5 PPG with 4.3 RPG to make up the group of double-digit scorers for Toledo coming into this game. As a team, Toledo is averaging 81.1 PPG on 45.9% shooting from the field, 39.1% from 3-point range and 77.4% from the foul line while allowing 70.9 PPG on 42.7% shooting from the field and 28.8% from 3-point range this season.

The Ball State Cardinals will look to bounce back after a 78-58 loss to Buffalo in their last outing. KJ Walton leads the Cardinals in scoring and rebounding with 16.1 PPG and 5.6 RPG while Ishmael El-Amin has 15.6 PPG and a team-high 3.3 APG to lead the Cardinals in assists as the only other double-digit scorer for Ball State up to this point in the season. Brachen Hazen has 9.1 PPG with 5 RPG and Miryne Thomas has 7.5 PPG with 5.6 RPG as well for the Cardinals this season. As a team, Ball State is averaging 70.1 PPG on 42.6% shooting from the field, 32.7% from 3-point range and 71.6% from the foul line while allowing 73.3 PPG on 43.2% shooting from the field and 30.7% from 3-point range this season.

Toledo is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games while the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games overall. Ball State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record while the over is 14-3 in their last 17 games overall. The underdog is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two teams.

I get why points with a home dog are always worth a look, but the Ball State Cardinals haven’t been playing well enough defensively to give them much value, giving up almost 80 PPG during this four-game losing skid. Toledo has been one of the best cover teams in the country and have been rock solid against the number on the road all year long, so I’ll lay the points with Toledo in this spot.