UC-Santa Barbara vs Long Beach State College Basketball Picks, Odds, Predictions 3/11/21

The Long Beach State Beach and the UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos meet in a Big West conference tournament quarter-final matchup from the Michelob Ultra Arena on Thursday afternoon.

The Long Beach State Beach booked their spot in the quarters by virtue of their 85-63 win over CSU-Northridge last time out. Jadon Jones led the Beach with 19 points on 7 of 12 shooting with 3 threes, 11 rebounds and a pair of steals for the double-double while Chance Hunter added 13 points on 5 of 9 shooting with 3 threes as well. Colin Slater and Joe Hampton each had 10 points to round out the group of double-digit scorers for Long Beach State in the win with Hampton shooting 4 of 8 from the field while Slater shot 4 of 10 with a pair of threes. Isaiah Washington had 6 points with 9 rebounds and a team-high 4 assists as well in the victory for the Beach.

The UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos come in as the #1-seed, finishing the year with a 13-3 conference mark as part of a 19-4 overall record this season. JaQuori McLaughlin leads the way for the Gauchos in scoring and assists with 15.6 PPG and 5.4 APG while Amadou Sow has 13 PPG and a team-high 7.5 RPG to lead UCSB in the rebounding department. Ajare Sanni has 11.5 PPG to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for the Gauchos coming into this one while Miles Norris has 9.6 PPG and 4.6 RPG as well for UC-Santa Barbara this season. As a team, UC-Santa Barbara is averaging 75.8 PPG on 48.6% shooting from the field and 35.4% from three while allowing 62.1 PPG on 41.6% shooting from the field and 33.1% from three this season.

Long Beach State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 14-3 in their last 17 games againt a team with a winning record. UC-Santa Barbara is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400 while the under is 34-12 in their last 46 neutral site games.

I get the Gauchos being favored here because they’re the top seed and the better team here. However, the Gauchos also have a tendency to play down to lower teams on their schedule, as UCSB’s failed to cover their last seven games against teams with a losing record. I just think this is too many points for what I see ending as an 11-point game max, so I’ll take Long Beach State and the points in this one.