St. Mary’s vs Western Kentucky College Basketball Picks, Odds, Predictions 3/17/21

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Saint Mary’s Gaels meet in an NIT first round matchup in college basketball action from the Comerica Center on Wednesday night.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers reached the NIT after finishing the year with a 20-7 overall record including an 11-3 mark in C-USA play to finish atop the C-USA East division. The Hilltoppers took down UTSA and UAB before being upended by the North Texas Mean Green in overtime. Charles Bassey leads the Hilltoppers in scoring and rebounding, averaging a double-double per game with 17.7 PPG and 11.5 RPG this season. Taveion Hollingsworth added 13.6 PPG as the only other double-digit scorer for WKU this season while Josh Anderson had 9.2 PPG and Dayvion McKinght added a team-high 3.9 APG this season to lead the Hilltoppers in the assist department. As a team, Western Kentucky is averaging 73.9 PPG on 45.6% shooting from the field and 34.3% from three while allowing 68.5 PPG on 42.3% shooting from the field and 36% from three this season.

The Saint Mary’s Gaels come into this one after recording a 14-9 record overall this season including a 4-6 mark in WCC conference play. The Gaels took down Loyola Marymount in the quarter-finals of the WCC tournament before falling to undefeated conference champion Gonzaga in the semi-finals of the tournament. Logan Johnson leads the Gaels in scoring with 13.5 PPG while Tommy Kuhse has 12.6 PPG with 3.7 RPG and a team-high 4.8 APG to lead the Gaels in assists. Matthias Tass has 10.8 PPG with 5.2 RPG to cap off the trio of double-digit scorers for Saint Mary’s this season. Kyle Bowen also has 6 RPG for Saint Mary’s this year to lead the Gaels on the glass. As a team, Saint Mary’s is averaging 65.1 PPG on 42.5% shooting from the field and 30.6% from three while allowing 62.3 PPG on 42.5% shooting from the field and 35.7% from three this season.

Western Kentucky is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. Saint Mary’s is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall.

This line makes no sense to me. I get it’s a neutral floor, but Saint Mary’s is not the better team here. This Gaels team has greatly regressed after losing Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts from last year’s team and I just think the Gaels are being way too much credit based on name brand. Western Kentucky is a 20-win team that I would’ve had in the tournament field ahead of other teams in there, but that’s another story for another day. Either way I think the wrong team’s favored here but I’ll take my free bucket with the Hilltoppers and walk to the window to cash my ticket.