NCAA Tournament Picks: Michigan State vs UCLA 3/18/21 College Basketball Picks, Odds, Predictions

The Michigan State Spartans face off with the UCLA Bruins a NCAA tournament first round matchup First Four play-in college basketball action from Mackey Arena on Thursday night.

The Michigan State Spartans come into the conference tournament as an at-large participant after finishing with a 15-12 overall record including their opening round loss to Maryland in the Big Ten tournament. Aaron Henry comes in as MSU’s lone double-digit scorer with 15.3 PPG while also sharing the lead in rebounding with Joey Hauser with 5.7 RPG and also leading Sparty with 3.5 APG and 1.3 steals pe game as well. Hauser has 9.7 PPG with 5.7 RPG and Joshua Langford has averaged 9.6 PPG for MSU this season. As a team, Michigan State is averaging 69.5 PPG on 42.5% shooting from the field and 32.2% from three while allowing 70.7 PPG on 42.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% from three this season.

The UCLA Bruins also come in as an at large bid, finishing with a 17-9 overall record including their 83-79 OT loss to eventual conference champion Oregon State in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament. Johnny Juzang leads the Bruins in scoring with 14 PPG along with 4.1 RPG while Jaime Jaquez Jr. has 11.7 PPG with a team-high 6 RPG and 1.2 steals per game. Tyger Campbell has 10.5 PPG with a team-high 5.6 APG to lead UCLA in assists while Jules Bernard and Cody Riley each have 10+ PPG as well for UCLA this season, round out the group of double-digit scorers for the Bruins. As a team, UCLA is averaging 72.6 PPG on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.3% from three while allowing 67.9 PPG on 43.9% shooting from the field and 34.9% from three this season.

Michigan State is 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games overall and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 NCAA tournament games. UCLA is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games while the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games as an underdog. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams.

This is a hard one to call as these are two teams that you don’t associate with being in a play in game so it’s tough. However, unpopular opinion time, as much as I love Tom Izzo as a coach, I don’t think this Michigan State team deserves to be in the tournament. I understand they have wins over all of the big boys in the Big Ten this year like Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State, but looking back, the road win at Duke isn’t as impressive as first thought and there were some frustrating losses mixed in there as well. UCLA is back and as much as Mick Cronin has the ability to let his teams choke under pressure, I just think that this is a spot where the Bruins can succeed as there’s just a lot more depth and talent within UCLA’s ranks. I’ll take the point with UCLA though I’m not sure we even need it.