NCAA Tournament Picks: San Diego State vs Syracuse 3/19/21 College Basketball Picks, Odds, Predictions

The San Diego State Aztecs meet up with the Syracuse Orange in an NCAA tournament first-round matchup in college basketball action from Butler’s Hinkle Fieldhouse on Friday night.

The Syracuse Orange come into this one with a record of 16-9 including a 9-7 mark in ACC conference play. Syracuse dismantled NC State in the second round of the ACC tournament before narrowly falling to top-seeded Virginia in the quarters. Buddy Boeheim leads the Orange in scoring with 17.1 PPG along with 2.8 APG while Alan Griffin has 14.7 PPG with 1.8 blocks and Quincy Guerrier has 14.4 PPG with a team-high 8.8 RPG to lead the Orange on the glass and to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for the Orange up to this point in the season. Marek Dolezaj has 9.9 PPG and 5.3 RPG while Joseph Girard III has 9.5 PPG with a team-high 3.3 APG and Kadary Richmond has 3.3 APG as well for Syracuse this year. As a team, Syracuse is averaging 75.6 PPG on 43.6% shooting from the field and 32.9% from three while allowing 70.8 PPG on 41.6% shooting from the field and 31.5% from three this season.

The San Diego State Aztecs come into the Big Dance as the Mountain West regular season and tournament champion, sitting at 23-4 on the year with a 14-3 mark in MVC conference play. The Aztecs took out Wyoming and Nevada before defeating Utah State in the Mountain West championship game. Matt Mitchell leads the Aztecs in scoring with 15.4 PPG along with 5.5 RPG while Jordan Schakel has 14.3 PPG with 4.4 RPG as San Diego State’s only other double-digit scorer up to this point in the season. Terrell Gomez has 8.8 PPG while Nathan Mensah’s on 8.2 PPG with a team-high 6.1 RPG and 1.4 blocks per game this season. Trey Pulliam also has a team-high 3.4 APG to lead the Aztecs in the assist department. As a team, San Diego State is averaging 74.4 PPG on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38% from three while allowing 60.1 PPG on 38.7% shooting from the field and 32.5% from three this season.

Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog while the over is 10-1 in their last 11 neutral site games. San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win while the over is 5-2 in their last 7 NCAA tournament games as a favorite.

I agree with San Diego State being favored here as the higher seed, but the problem is that the Aztecs have yet to really be challenged defensively. Syracuse isn’t the same defense-first team of years past, but that has meant that the offense has improved and the Orange still employ that harsh zone defense, which has been known to slow down even the best of teams. I think the Orange are just too well-coached to bow out quietly early and in this game I think absolute worst-case scenario is that we push but I want Syracuse and my free bucket in this one.