Virginia vs Mississippi State 3/16/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Virginia Cavaliers meet in an NIT First Round matchup in college basketball action from the John Paul Jones Arena on Wednesday night.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs come into this one on behalf of the SEC after finishing the year at 18-15 overall including an 8-10 mar in SEC conference play to finish as the #10 seed. The Bulldogs upset South Carolina before falling to eventual champion Tennessee in the quarterfinals. Iverson Molinar leads the Bulldogs in scoring and assists with 17.6 PPG and 3.6 APG while Garrison Brooks has 10.3 PPG with a team-high 6.6 RPG to lead the Bulldogs on the glass and Tolu Smith has 14.1 PPG with 6.3 RPG in 20 games to cap off the group of double-digit scorers for Mississippi State so far this season. D.J. Jeffries has 9.2 PPG and 4.3 RPG and Shakeel Moore has 8.8 PPG as well this season. As a team, Mississippi State is averaging 71.2 PPG on 45.7% shooting from the field, 29.3% from three and 71.9% from the foul line while allowing 66.7 PPG on 43.1% shooting from the field and 32.1% from three this season.

The Virginia Cavaliers come into the conference tournament repping the ACC after a 19-13 mark in the regular season, finishing with the #6 seed in the conference tournament. The Cavaliers took out Louisville in the second round before being stifled by UNC in the quarterfinals. Jayden Gardner leads the Cavaliers in scoring and rebounding with 15.3 PPG and 6.6 RPG while Armaan Franklin has 10.9 PPG and Kihei Clark has 10.3 PPG with 4.2 APG. Reece Beekman also has a team-high 5 APG as well this season. As a team, Virginia is averaging 63.6 PPG on 45.3% shooting from the field, 32.7% from three and 74.7% from the foul line while allowing 60.4 PPG on 42.8% shooting from the field and 34.6% from three this season.

Mississippi State is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Virginia is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss while the under is 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games.

I get the case to be made either way here, but I’m looking at the under in this one. This just feels like the kind of game that ends up being the first to 60. We know the kind of defense that Virginia possesses, but Mississippi State will be up to the task. I think you’re pulling at straws on the side here, so give me the under as a stronger play.