TCU vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff 11/7/22 College Basketball Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in college basketball action from the Ed & Rae Schollmeier Arena on Monday night.

The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions will look to rebound after a 7-24 mark in 2021-22, finishing with a 5-13 mark in SWAC conference play, ending their season. The Golden Lions will be tasked with replacing a pair of double-digit scorers from last year’s team with Shawn Williams (16.6 PPG, 3.4 APG) and DeQuan Morris (14.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) done with the program as is Brandon Brown (9.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG) but the Golden Lions do bring back Kylen Milton (12 PPG) while also bringing in Shaun Doss from the transfer portal after logging 12 PPG and 5.2 RPG for SIU-Edwardsville last time out.

The TCU Horned Frogs will try to build on a solid showing in 2021-22, finishing at 21-13 overall, including an 8-10 mark in Big 12 conference play, to finish as the 5-seed in the Big 12 tournament. The Horned Frogs took out Texas before falling to Kansas in the semi-finals. The Horned Frogs got an invite to the NCAA tournament as an at-large bid, upsetting Seton Hall in the first round before losing to Arizona in OT in the second round. The good news for TCU and coach Jamie Dixon is that the majority of his top-tier talent is in tact, returning his three double-digit scorers from last year in Mike Miles (15.1 PPG, 3.8 APG) while Emanuel Miller (10.3 PPG, team-high 6.2 RPG) and Damion Baugh (10.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.5 APG) also return as well as Eddie Lampkin, who had 6.2 RPG of his own as well as taking a step forward in his freshman season last year.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 games overall while the over is 6-2 in their last 8 home games.

I get the case to be made for these teams, as this is a big number for TCU, and UAPB has been the doormat for opposing power conference teams for some time now. That being said, I don’t think TCU’s done nearly enough to warrant this kind of line and this kind of preseason AP Ranking which currently has TCU as a top-10 team. Sure they bring back some players from last year’s lineup, but it was a lineup involved in a lot of tight games. I’m not saying this game will be tight, but it’s not going to be a runaway. I’ll lean towards the under here as I see this being a struggle on both sides, with TCU struggling to find their identity while UAPB still has issues scoring and dealing with whoever’s on the other side. I’ll side with the under in this game.