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North Carolina vs Duke Pick – Basketball Predictions & Odds 3/4/23

Duke Blue Devils (22-8) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (19-11)
March 4, 2023 6:30 pm EDT
The Line: North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 / Duke Blue Devils +3.5; Over/Under: +139.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels meet Saturday in college basketball action at the Dean E. Smith Center. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 72.1 points on 44.6 percent shooting and allowing 64 points on 41.3 percent shooting. Kyle Filipowski is averaging 14.8 points and 9 rebounds, while Jeremy Roach is averaging 13.2 points and 2.4 rebounds. Mark Mitchell is dishing 1.2 assists and Tyrese Proctor is grabbing 3.2 rebounds. The Duke Blue Devils are shooting 33 percent from beyond the arc and 76.8 percent from the free throw line. The Duke Blue Devils are allowing 31.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 36.3 rebounds per game.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are averaging 77.1 points on 43.7 percent shooting and allowing 71.6 points on 43.4 percent shooting. Caleb Love is averaging 16.9 points and 3.7 rebounds, while Armando Bacot is averaging 16.5 points and 10.8 rebounds. RJ Davis is the third double-digit scorer and Pete Nance is grabbing 6.1 rebounds. The North Carolina Tar Heels are shooting 31.4 percent from beyond the arc and 73.9 percent from the free throw line. The North Carolina Tar Heels are allowing 33.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 36.8 rebounds per game.

The Blue Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Tar Heels are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The under is 10-3 in Blue Devils last 13 road games. The under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 overall.

I get this is a massive game for North Carolina in terms of its resume and its senior night against a hated rival. I get it. However, a strong argument can be made for Duke being the better team, and I usually like having free points in my pocket in rivalries anyway. Also, you’re never sure which UNC team is going to show up game to game, which is why it’s on the bubble in the first place. Give me the road dog.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Duke Blue Devils +3.5

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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