The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils meet Friday in ACC Tournament college basketball action from Spectrum Center. Here’s a Duke vs North Carolina prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Duke vs North Carolina pick.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
The Tar Heels had their ups and downs initially this season. That said, since mid-February North Carolina has been doing quite well in the win column. The Tar heels kicked things off on a 12-6 run over their first 18 outings. Those losses came versus Kansas, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, Florida and Louisville. The next seven games were a rocky 2-5 run featuring wins over only Boston College and Pitt. Otherwise it was losses to Stanford, Wake Forest, Pitt, Duke and Clemson. Since then however, the Tar Heels have just one loss, March 8 versus Duke. The wins otherwise were over Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and Wake Forest. In total that gives the Tar Heels a 22-12 run through 34 games so far this year.
On Thursday in the tournament matchup versus Wake Forest, the Tar Heels went into the second half with a two-point lead, then hit a 35-28 run from there for a 68-59 win in the end. Tops in scoring was RJ Davis with 23 points, three rebounds and one assist.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
Over on the Duke side, they’ve had a great season so far, with only a few scattered losses on the card. The Blue Devils stumbled a bit early amid a tough opening, losing to Kentucky and Kansas in their first six games. A wins streak came next though, as Duke dispatched Seattle, Auburn, Louisville, Incarnate Word, George Mason, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, SMU, Pitt, Notre Dame, Miami, Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State, North Carolina and Syracuse. After a loss to Clemson, Duke has since hit another long win streak. Those victories have come over Cal, Stanford, Virginia, Illinois, Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Georgia Tech in succession. That gives the Blue Devils a 29-3 run through 32 games so far.
Matched up against Georgia Tech on Thursday, the Blue Devils were in trouble with a 31-26 halftime deficit. Duke woke up after halftime though, hitting a 52-39 run in the second for a comeback win 78-70 in the end. Kon Knueppel led the team with his 28 points, eight assists, five rebounds and two steals. Khaman Maluach added 14 points with nine boards and four blocks, while Isaiah Evans came off the bench for 14 points with two rebounds in 17 minutes of action. Patrick Ngongba chipped in seven points with two rebounds off the bench as well.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- Duke has won 27 of its last 28 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- North Carolina has lost each of its last eight night games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Duke has won the first half in each of its last 10 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the North Carolina Tar Heels will win
- North Carolina has won eight of its last nine games.
- North Carolina has won the first half in eight of its last nine games against the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Thirteen of Duke’s last 14 games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.
- Fifteen of North Carolina’s last 17 Conference Tournament night games have produced a total of 154 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for point differential per game this season (+22.1).
- Duke ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for offensive rating this season (126.4).
- North Carolina ranks 21st among Division 1 teams for field goals made per game this season (29.1).
- North Carolina ranks T24th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (81.7).
Duke vs North Carolina Prediction
I’ll stick with Duke, but this should be a great matchup. Despite a bit of a slow start on Thursday, the Blue Devils posted a pretty solid showing in their win over Georgia Tech. Duke shot an okay 43.5 percent from the field and a very nice 17-of-19 (89.5 percent) from the line alongside a 38-31 rebounding advantage and just eight turnovers. The Blue Devils were pretty cold from outside though, hitting just seven of their 30 attempts (23.3 percent) during the victory. The 12 points off 11 Yellow Jackets turnovers certainly helped as well. That gives Duke nine straight wins, and they’ve scored 78 or more points in each one of those victories. We should see another nice total Friday.
These teams have faced each other twice this year, with Duke taking both games. First was an 87-70 result at home on February 1, then an 82-69 road win on March 8. In that latest outing, the Blue Devils shot a nice 56.4 percent from the field with a 39-26 rebounding edge but did have 14 turnovers. This third matchup likely won’t be so statistically lopsided, but I do like the Blue Devils to power it out in the end once again.