The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators meet Saturday in SEC Tournament college basketball action from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Here’s a Florida vs Vanderbilt prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs Vanderbilt pick.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Commodores were sitting at 16-3 back on January 20 and coming off a three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt won five of the next six though (with a lone loss to Oklahoma) before a 1-3 run that featured losses to Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky. Since then it’s been three straight wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee (twice). That gives Vanderbilt a 25-7 record overall through 32 games this season.
On Friday in the tournament rematch versus Tennessee, the Commodores were in the locker room looking up at a tie ballgame 31-31 on the scoreboard. Vanderbilt hit a 44-37 run the rest of the way, eventually taking the victory in the end 75-68 to keep their tourney going. Leading the team in scoring was Duke Miles with his 30 points, six boards, five assists and three steals in 33 minutes of action.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
Over on the Florida side, they opened up the season on a pretty solid run and were sitting at 14-5 overall on January 20 following a five-game win streak. The Gators would then take a loss to Auburn before another victory stretch. Those wins have come versus South Carolina, Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi State and Kentucky (twice).
In the tournament rematch versus the Wildcats on Friday the Gators came back out onto the floor after halftime with a 37-28 advantage. Florida was outscored 35-34 the rest of the way but held on for the victory in the end 71-63 to move on. Tops in scoring was Alex Condon with 22 points, 10 rebounds and two assists. Thomas Haugh added 13 points with eight boards, two steals and three blocks as well.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Florida Gators Betting Trends: March 14, 2026
Why the Florida Gators will win
- Vanderbilt has lost each of its last 17 games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents.
- Florida has won each of its last 13 March games as a top-15 AP-ranked team.
- Florida has won the first half in each of its last 13 March games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Vanderbilt has won each of its last four games played at neutral venues.
- Florida has lost the first half in each of its last four games against AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Vanderbilt’s last eight games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
- Each of Florida’s last four games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 175+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Florida ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (45.5).
- Florida ranks 1st among Division 1 teams for rebound percentage this season (59.3%).
- Vanderbilt ranks 13th among Division 1 teams for points per game this season (86.9).
- Vanderbilt ranks 14th among Division 1 teams for free throw percentage this season (78.3%).
Florida vs Vanderbilt Prediction
I’ll just stay with Florida. The Gators really need a better effort than they got against Kentucky though, especially when it comes to the shooting woes. Florida hit just 37.9 percent from the field and a meager 15 percent (3-of-20) from outside. In addition to that, the Gators coughed up 16 turnovers for 18 Wildcats points. That said, Florida held it together thanks to 35.6 percent shooting allowed on defense and a 45-29 rebounding advantage. The Gators have now won 12 straight games, scoring 84 or more points in 10 of those.
These teams last met up back on January 17 in a 98-94 road win for the Gators. In that one Florida shot very well (52.5 percent) from the field and had 83.3 percent (25-of-30) at the line. Thing is, Vanderbilt also shot well (50.8 percent) and had 90.9 percent (20-of-22) from the line. The difference was Florida’s big edge on the boards 36-22, which helped overcome the 10-4 turnover margin. I like this one to be another tight shootout and a fun one to watch.