The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Saturday in NCAA Tournament Elite Eight college basketball action from Toyota Center in Houston. Here’s an Illinois vs. Iowa prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs. Iowa pick.
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
The Hawkeyes were sitting at 18-5 overall through 23 games early last month. Iowa could only post a 2-6 run over the next eight, however, finishing off the regular season with losses to Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska. After a win over Maryland and a loss to Ohio State in the conference tournament, the Hawkeyes beat Clemson, Florida and Nebraska in the national tourney.
In the NCAA Tournament matchup versus Nebraska on Thursday, the Hawkeyes came back out onto the floor in the second half with a 46-43 deficit. Iowa fought back from there, however, posting a 34-25 run on the way to a 77-71 victory in the end. Tops in scoring was Bennett Stirtz with 20 points, four assists and two rebounds. Tate Sage added 19 points with eight rebounds and three assists in 29 minutes of work.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Over on the Illinois side, they made it through their first 23 games with a 20-3 record but then won just two of the next six. The losses in that time were versus Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA and Michigan. Following victories versus Oregon and Maryland and a Big Ten Tournament loss to Wisconsin, the Illini have taken out Penn, VCU and Houston in the first three rounds of the national tournament.
In the Thursday matchup versus Houston, Illinois was sitting in the locker room with a modest lead, 24-22. The Illini hit the gas in the second half with a 41-33 advantage and took the victory in the end 65-55. Topping the scorers was David Mirkovic with 14 points and 10 boards. Keaton Wagler also doubled up on 13 points with 12 rebounds, while Andrej Stojakovic had 13 points with two assists.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last 13 March games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- Iowa has lost 16 of its last 19 games against AP-ranked opponents.
- Illinois has won the first half in each of its last 21 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Iowa Hawkeyes will win
- Iowa has won seven of its last eight games played at neutral venues.
- Iowa has won the first half in three of its last four night games played at neutral venues.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of Iowa’s last 12 games against Conference opponents at neutral venues has produced a total of 139+ points.
- Fifteen of Illinois’ last 16 games against Conference opponents at neutral venues have produced a total of 143+ points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (3.7).
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (7.8).
- Iowa ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for pace this season (62.2).
- Iowa ranks T1st for bench points per game (25.0) among the remaining teams in this season’s NCAA Tournament.
Illinois vs Iowa Prediction
I’ll take a stab on Illinois but you could make a case either way. The Illini did a stellar job in their win over Houston on Thursday—especially in the second half. Illinois shot 43.1 percent from the field with a 37-25 rebounding advantage and a 24-18 edge in the paint alongside just eight turnovers. The Illini gave up only 34.4 percent from the field and only allowed Houston to get to the line twice. The only real blemish was the rough 12-of-21 (57.1 percent) from the line. Illinois has been quite impressive during this national tournament run, and they passed their first true test with flying colors. That makes five wins in the last six games for the Illini with 76 or more points scored in five of those.
These teams only met once this year, a 75-69 road win for the Illini back on January 11. In that one Illinois shot 49.1 percent from the field with 81.8 percent (9 of 11) at the line and a 34-28 rebounding edge. The Illini added just 40.9 percent shooting allowed on defense but did have 12 turnovers. With that in mind, Iowa can be a scrappy, pesky team and I could see them staying close in this rematch provided they do some hassling on defense. If Illinois continues to play like they have over the first three games of this national tournament, however, the Illini will be in good shape. All things considered, this will be a fun game between two familiar conference foes with a lengthy history together.