The Pennsylvania Quakers and the Illinois Fighting Illini meet Thursday in NCAA Tournament First Round college basketball action from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville. Here’s an Illinois vs. Penn prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Illinois vs. Penn pick.
Penn Quakers Betting Preview
The Quakers could only win nine of their first 19 games to open up the season. Penn would get victories in their next four games over Cornell, Princeton, Columbia and Cornell again, though, before losing to Yale. After that came victories versus Dartmouth, Harvard, Brown, Harvard again and Yale for an Ivy League Tournament championship. That gives the Quakers an 18-11 overall run this season.
In the Sunday game versus Yale, the Quakers were up by two points at halftime, 41-39. Penn was outscored 36-34 the rest of the way however and had to go to overtime. Following the extra period, the Quakers finished with an 88-84 victory. TJ Power put the team on his shoulders with 44 points, 14 rebounds, two assists and a perfect 9-of-9 from the line.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Over on the Illinois side, they went a pretty solid 8-3 to open up the year. The Illini then took victories over Missouri, Southern, Penn State, Rutgers, Iowa, Northwestern, Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Washington, Nebraska and Northwestern. Next came losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin, then wins over Indiana and USC before losses to UCLA and Michigan. After wins over Oregon and Maryland, Illinois lost to Wisconsin in the tournament.
Matched up against the Badgers last Friday in Big Ten Tournament activity, the Illini were in a good spot at the break with a 36-30 advantage. Illinois was outscored 48-42 the rest of the way and ended up going to overtime. When the extra period finished up, the Illini had a tough loss, 91-88. Both David Mirkovic and Keaton Wagler had a team-high 19 points with a combined 13 assists.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last 11 March games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team.
- Penn has lost five of its last six games against non-Conference opponents at neutral venues.
- Illinois has won the first half in each of its last 19 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
Why the Penn Quakers will win
- Penn has won each of its last six night games.
- Illinois has lost four of its last five games as a top-15 AP-ranked team at neutral venues.
- Penn has won the first half in each of its last three games.
Total Points Facts
- Nine of Illinois’ last 10 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 151+ points.
- Six of Penn’s last seven night games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 150 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (3.8).
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (7.8).
- Penn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent free throw percentage this season (66.5%).
- Penn ranks 27th among Division 1 teams for opponent free throws made per game this season (11.4).
Illinois vs Penn Prediction
I’ll just stick with Illinois. The Illini were a disappointment in the Big Ten Tournament versus Wisconsin, losing the game in OT after holding a big lead rather late in the second half. Illinois shot 50 percent from the field in that one with just seven turnovers and a 44-34 rebounding advantage. That said, the Illini had just 60 percent on 9-of-15 from the line as opposed to the Badgers’ 83.3 percent on 25-of-30. Illinois is just 4-5 in their last nine outings total (with two losses being to Wisconsin), so they really need to assert themselves here against a Penn team that the Illini should dominate in almost every capacity.
Speaking of Penn, they were a great story in the conference tournament with their two overtime victories. The Quakers shot 45.3 percent from the field, 50 percent (14-of-28) from outside and a perfect 16-of-16 from the line in the win over Yale, but did cough up 13 turnovers and got beaten in the paint 40-28. That gives Penn a 9-1 record in their last 10 games; they’re getting a big jump in opposing talent here, however.