In this article, we will formulate a St. Mary’s vs Vanderbilt prediction for this College Basketball game on Friday, March 21 at the Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this game in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tournament. The winner of this game will meet Alabama or Robert Morris in the 2nd Round.
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Vanderbilt Commodores (20-12, 18-14 ATS) have been playing in waves in recent weeks. They suffered three straight defeats to Auburn, Tennessee, and Kentucky, then beat Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri, but returned to losing ways against Arkansas and Georgia. Vanderbilt entered the SEC tournament as the No. 12 seed and lost to Texas in the first round.
Vanderbilt is averaging 79.6 PPG (50th) and is allowing 74.8 PPG (264th). The Commodores are getting 34.9 RPG (232nd) and dish out 14.0 APG (176th). Jason Edwards is the team’s top performer with 17.0 PPG. Tyler Nickel has 10.5 PPG and 2.4 RPG, while Devin McGlockton contributes 10.4 PPG, a team-high 7.9 RPG, and a team-high 1.1 BPG.
St. Mary’s Gaels Betting Preview
The St. Mary’s Gaels (28-5, 14-18 ATS) closed out the regular season with seven consecutive victories after suffering the only loss of 2025 to San Francisco. St. Mary’s secured the top seed for the WCC tournament and skipped all the rounds up to the semis, where the Gaels didn’t have problems against Pepperdine. However, Ginzaga got revenge for a couple of losses earlier in the season and beat the Gaels 58-51 in the finals to claim the title.
St. Mary’s averages 73.5 PPG (201st) and allows 60.7 PPG (5th). The Gaels are 22nd in rebounds (39.8) and 75th in assists (15.5). Augustas Marciulionis leads the team with 14.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, a team-high 6.1 APG, and a team-high 1.4 SPG. Paulius Murauskas follows him with 12.5 PPG and a team-high 8.0 RPG, while Mitchell Saxen chips in 10.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG, and a team-high 1.3 BPG.
Why St. Mary’s will beat Vanderbilt
- Saint Mary’s has won 18 of its last 20 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- Vanderbilt has lost each of its last three NCAA Tournament games.
- Vanderbilt has lost the first half in each of its last three games against the West Coast Conference.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Vanderbilt’s last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents has produced a total of 140+ points.
- Each of Saint Mary’s’ last five games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue has produced a total of 133 or fewer points.
Matchup/League Facts
- Saint Mary’s ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for opponent three-point field goal attempts per game this season (17.4).
- Saint Mary’s ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for opponent points per game this season (60.8).
- Vanderbilt ranks 33rd among Division 1 teams for opponent assist-to-turnover ratio this season (0.86).
- Vanderbilt ranks 35th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (62.0).
St. Mary’s vs Vanderbilt Prediction
Vanderbilt won three of four H2H duels thus far, but those three wins came between 2009 and 2015, while the Gaels won the most recent meeting in 2022. I am aware the Commodores come from a stronger conference, but the Gaels have one of the best defenses in the country and a couple of excellent individuals in Marciulionis and Murauskas, so I seriously doubt they will suffer elimination in the first round of the tournament. Vanderbilt hasn’t played well lately and I don’t think it will suddenly play its best basketball and beat strong St. Mary’s.