The Illinois Fighting Illini and the UConn Huskies meet Saturday in NCAA Tournament Final Four college basketball action from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Here’s a UConn vs Illinois prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best UConn vs. Illinois pick.
Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Illinois started off well this year, posting 20 wins in their first 23 outings. Next came a rough 2-4 run, though. Those defeats came courtesy of Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA and Michigan. After wins against Oregon and Maryland and a Big Ten Tournament loss to Wisconsin, the Illini have taken out Penn, VCU, Houston and Iowa over four games in the NCAA Tournament for a 28-8 overall record.
In the Iowa matchup last weekend, the Illini came out of the break with a deficit, trailing 32-28. Illinois got it going in the second half, however, hitting a 43-27 stride on the way to a nice comeback win, 71-59 in the end against a conference rival. Keaton Wagler was the leading scorer on the team with 25 points, three assists and two rebounds. Andrej Stojakvic had 17 points with five rebounds in the win as well.
UConn Huskies Betting Preview
Over on the UConn side, they were a force to be reckoned with early in the season, winning 22 of their first 23 outings. Losses to St. John’s, Creighton and Marquette came in the next eight games, then wins over Xavier and Georgetown in the conference tournament ahead of a loss to St. John’s. In the national tournament, UConn has beaten Furman, UCLA, Michigan State and Duke over their four games.
In the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight game versus the Blue Devils, the Huskies were in trouble as they came back out onto the court for the second half sporting a 44-29 deficit. UConn roared back on a 44-28 run the rest of the way, however, eventually pulling off the win 73-72 in dramatic fashion. Topping the scorers in the win was Tarris Reed with 26 points, nine rebounds and three assists alongside four blocks and a pair of steals.
Why the Connecticut Huskies will win
- Connecticut has won each of its last 18 games as an AP-ranked team against an AP-ranked team at neutral venues.
- Illinois has lost six of its last seven games against the Big East Conference.
- Connecticut has won the first half in each of its last 13 NCAA Tournament games against a lower seed.
Why the Illinois Fighting Illini will win
- Illinois has won each of its last six games against non-Conference opponents.
- Connecticut has lost three of its last four games against teams with an AP Ranking of 13.
- Illinois has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 night games against non-Conference opponents.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of Connecticut’s last 10 games against the Big Ten Conference has produced a total of 135 or fewer points.
- Seven of Illinois’ last eight games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 144+ points.
Connecticut Huskies Player Facts
- Tarris Reed Jr. is the only Div. 1 player to have recorded a 30-point, 20-rebound game this season.
- Alex Karaban ranks T1st in free throw percentage (100.0%) in this season’s NCAA Tournament (min. 6 attempts).
Illinois Fighting Illini Player Facts
- David Mirkovic ranks 1st amongst Freshmen for total rebounds (44) in this season’s NCAA Tournament.
- Andrej Stojakovic ranks 1st for total points off the bench (60) during this season’s NCAA Tournament.
Matchup/League Facts
- Connecticut has recorded the equal-longest winning streak among Division 1 teams this season (18 games).
- Two different Connecticut players have scored 25+ points in a game during this season’s NCAA Tournament—equal to the most of any team.
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for steals per game this season (3.8).
- Illinois ranks 365th among Division 1 teams for opponent turnovers per game this season (7.8).
UConn vs Illinois Prediction
I’m going to stay with UConn but you could certainly make a case either way. The Huskies shot a relatively tepid 43.8 percent in their last outing compared to Duke’s 52.1 percent from the field. UConn added just 21.7 percent (5-of-23) from outside, a 30-26 rebounding deficit and 70.6 percent (12-of-17) from the line. The major key to the Huskies’ victory was their pesky defense, which generated 20 points off 13 Blue Devils turnovers. UConn has two major NCAA Tournament tests in their rearview mirror right now after dispatching Michigan State and Duke over three days last weekend. The Huskies have 73 or more pitons in three of the four games during this tournament.
As for Illinois, they put on a clinic in the second half against a good Iowa team last weekend, eventually shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 85.7 percent (18-of-21) from the line alongside a 32-18 rebounding edge and a dominant 40-12 advantage in the paint. It wasn’t perfect though, as Illinois shot a meager 17.6 percent (3-of-17) from 3-point range in the victory. The Illini have hit 71 or more points in three of their four NCAA Tournament outings thus far. Saturday’s matchup could go a lot of different ways, but it should be a great game to check out.