Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction Football Picks 11-18-23

Arkansas State vs Texas State Prediction Football Picks 11-18-23 player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Texas State Bobcats and the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in college football action from Centennial Bank Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Texas State Falls To Coastal

The Texas State Bobcats come into this one looking to rebound after a 31-23 loss at the hands of Coastal Carolina in their last matchup. TJ Finley has thrown for 2,553 yards, 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 68.9% passing while Ismail Mahdi has a team-high 1,050 yards and 8 touchdowns. Donerio Davenport also has 347 rushing yards while Joey Hobert has a team-high 64 grabs for 804 yards and 7 touchdowns. Kole Wilson and Ashtyn Hawkins each have 500+ receiving yards as well for the Bobcats this season. On defense, Brian Holloway has a team-high 81 total tackles and a pair of interceptions while Ben Bell has a team-high 7 sacks and Tavian Coleman has 3.5 sacks as well this season.

Texas State Bobcats Team Facts

  • Texas State has lost nine of its last 10 road games in November.
  • Texas State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
  • Texas State has won the first quarter in four of its last five road games against conference opponents.
  • Texas State has won the first half in five of its last six games against conference opponents.
  • Four of Texas State's last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Arkansas State Dropped By South Alabama

The Arkansas State Red Wolves come into this one looking to bounce back after a 21-14 loss at the hands of South Alabama in their last matchup. Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 1,834 yards, 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 58.5% passing while also rushing for 333 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ja’Quez Cross has a team-high 522 rushing yards with 3 TDs and Zak Wallace has 491 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Courtney Jackson leads Arkansas State’s receiving group with 27 grabs for 503 yards and 6 touchdowns while Corey Rucker and Jeff Foreman each have 400+ receiving yards. Another four receivers have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year for A-State. On defense, Javante Mackey and Charles Willekes each have a team-high 72 total tackles while Eddie Smith has a pair of interceptions. Keyron Crawford has a team-high 4.5 sacks and Nate Martey has 4 sacks as well on the year.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Team Facts

  • Arkansas State has lost 22 of its last 28 games against conference opponents.
  • Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six November home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
  • Arkansas State has won the first half in three of its last four home games against conference opponents.
  • Eight of Arkansas State's last nine November games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

  • Arkansas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 30+ points of any FBS team this season (2).
  • Texas State rank 21st among FBS teams for points per game this season (34.9).
  • Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10 points or less of any FBS team this season (3).

Chris’ Pick

I’m not rushing to the window to bet this game, but I’ll lean towards Arkansas State and the points for now. The Red Wolves have bowl eligibility to play for here and Texas State’s already clinched it. Plus, this is Arkansas State’s home finale, so I expect everyone to put their best foot forward to make sure they don’t leave bowl eligibility to next week’s road date with Marshall. Give me Arkansas State and the points.

Chris Ruffolo's Free Pick:Arkansas State +3.5