The Baylor Bears and Auburn Tigers meet Saturday in college football action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Here’s an Auburn vs Baylor Prediction. This article will include an Auburn vs Baylor Pick.
Baylor Bears Betting Preview
Baylor won just five games last season and enters the seventh year under coach Dave Aranda. Baylor hasn’t missed a bowl game for two straight seasons since 2009.
Baylor is rolling with Florida transfer DJ Lagway at quarterback, and while he has talent, he’s struggled with turnovers throughout his career. A healthy Dawson Pendergrass at running back would help, and there’s experience at wide receiver and along the offensive line. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman comes over from Kansas State, and he’ll have his work cut out for him. The linebacker position should be strong, but the defensive line and secondary remain question marks. Overall, Baylor is an experienced team that could make a jump if Lagway lives up to his 5-star label coming out of high school.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
Auburn has won six or fewer games in each of the last six seasons and begins the Alex Golesh era. Auburn hasn’t gone three straight seasons without a bowl trip since the 1994 season.
USF transfer Byrum Brown gets the nod at quarterback, and he brings 7,690 yards and 61 touchdowns with him. There’s a gang of USF receivers that jumped ship as well, while running back Jeremiah Cobb returns after nearly 1,000 rushing yards. There will be 10 new starters on offense, but this unit has more talent than a season ago. The defense has continuity under DC DJ Durkin, and this should be a tough side of the ball with Xavier Atkins leading the way. The offense has endless roster turnover, but there’s potential with this squad overall, and I expect Auburn to be far more competitive than its been over the last decade.
Why the Auburn Tigers will win
- Auburn has won each of its last nine season openers.
- Baylor has lost five of its last six games.
- Baylor has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
- Auburn has covered the spread in seven of its last eight season openers.
- Auburn has won the first quarter in five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- Auburn has won the first half in each of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
Why the Baylor Bears will win
- Auburn has lost seven of its last eight games in Georgia.
- Baylor has won three of its last four September games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Auburn has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight September games as a favorite.
- Baylor has covered the spread in five of its last six games as an underdog at neutral venues.
- Auburn has lost the first half in each of its last five games played at neutral venues.
- Baylor has won the first quarter in three of its last four games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of Baylor’s last eight games as an underdog at neutral venues have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Seven of Auburn’s last eight games in Georgia have gone UNDER the total points line.
Auburn Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Byrum Brown has thrown three or more touchdown passes in two consecutive games- equal to the longest streak in the FBS.
Baylor Bears Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Freeman led Oklahoma State for touchdowns (4) last season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Auburn ranked 11th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game last season (99.3).
- Auburn ranked 124th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against last season (68.2).
- Baylor ranked 4th among FBS teams for passing yards per game last season (309.6).
- Baylor ranked 8th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game last season (10.5).
Auburn vs Baylor Prediction
Auburn is probably the more complete team, but it’s also a program that’s underachieving in recent years and is replacing 10 of 11 starters. Baylor has a lot of questions on defense, but there’s talent on this offense, and if Lagway starts to show why he was a 5-star recruit, the Bears have a chance to surprise people. Neutral field, this feels like too much respect toward an Auburn team that hasn’t earned it. Baylor should also move the ball on this fast track in Atlanta. I’ll grab the points, especially with the hook on top of a key number.